Hello football fans!!!
AAAAaaaaaaahhhhhhh…
That was like having to poop really bad while you’re still 10 miles away from home…and just barely making it to the terlet before you shoot mud. It had to feel great to the members of the Hawkeye football team, as they just looked around the locker room after the game and smiled at each other. As my brother Darone always says: “Winning cures everything” and methinks that’s true here too. After two (and probably three) straight losses to teams that we should have beat, it was great to not only beat a team, but destroy a team while not making any of the dick-breaking mistakes we’ve seen the past three weeks. So when that happens (when we don’t make mistakes) it leaves the question we’ve all been asking:
“How good are we?”
THAT is the question that I kept asking myself as the week went on. Last week, after we knocked Kellen Lewis outta the game, it was all over but the screaming. At that point it was like sex with Kobe Bryant; you can kick and scream all you want…but it’s going to happen.
Although Indiana WAS a blow-out win (over a Big Ten team on the road)…this isn’t a good team. I re-watched that game this week, and we were kinda lucky to get that interception at the beginning of the game, and we were REALLY lucky to not get an interception thrown by Stanzi near the goal-line right after that. But we did – and then we didn’t – and the rout was on. So I ask again:
“Just how good are we?”
The Northwestern game is the game that I keep thinking about that makes me wanna punch a puppy in the face. Had we scored at the end and hung on, we’d be looking at a 5-2 record. And shouldn’t we be 6-1? Shoot…shouldn’t we be 7-0? Are we really a 7-0 team in sheep’s clothing?
“I mean…how good are we?!???”
Can we be the team that beats Penn State? Or will we shit the bed and wind up 4-8? That rhymed!
Or even worse, could we wind up 6-6 again? Stay tuned, Hawk fans…
WEEK 8 (ALREADY?!?!?):
We Steve Young’d that monkey off our our back, now let’s go play some football and play well for the second week in a row. We only have three rivalry games, and this is one of them. And it somehow seems that this is one of the best games of the year EVERY year.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Iowa Hawkeyes (11:00 AM, BTN, Line: Iowa by 3.5)
REMINDER: IT’S GOLD RUSH SATURDAY
My brother Daron and I were guessing the line on this game earlier in the week (we do that a lot) and I hit this one at Hawks by 4 – it was actually 4.5 – and now it’s dropped by a point and has settled at 3.5. If you look at this from a ‘non-Iowa-non-Wisconsin’ handicapper, you’d see that:
- Wisconsin has lost three games in a row
- Iowa has only won one outta the last four
- The last game for each team was a BLOW-OUT; Iowa’s a win and Wisconsin’s a loss.
- Iowa is at home, but Wisconsin has beaten us the past two years with one of those being in Kinnick
This is NOT an easy game to handicap…so you’d probably take the points.
Although we’re very similar in how we play the game, we’re two programs that are going in opposite directions.
Wisconsin: Even at the beginning of the year when Wisconsin was winning, they were winning ugly against teams that haven’t turned out to be all that great; Fresno State being the best example of that. That loss to Meeechigan looks worse and worse every week – especially when you consider they let them come back from 10 points down; that shit sticks in a team’s head for the rest of the year. They came back and played Ohio State tough, but the Buckeyes have a sub-par offense and were still able to put a drive together late to win the game. Then they got absolutely shellacked by Penn State last weekend. Wisconsin is the football team version of Wall Street right now.
But Bret Bielema will get his team up for this game.
Iowa: I’ll say it again; we should have beaten every team we played. I am NOT an Iowa apologist – I’m an Iowa realist – so I feel like I can say that without sounding silly. We’ve lost 1, 2, if not all 3 games strictly on turnovers. If we don’t turn the ball over so much, I believe we’re a top 20 team.
Now is the time in the season where I start to look at NCAA rankings and stats:
(NERD ALERT! NERD ALERT! – Stats are at the bottom of the page)
So the only thing that we’re not doing better than the Badgers is running the ball, and we’re running the ball pretty darn good.
- And – no surprise – the Badgers have gone below their 200 ypg average in their three losses.
- And – this IS a surprise – the only game they’ve actually gone OVER their 200 ypg was their first win against the Akron Zips when they rang up 400+ yards.
That last stat leads me to believe they’re not as good of a rushing team as they’ve been made out to be as that first game threw off their stats.
The biggest surprise across the board is how we’re both TIED in the turnover margin. Perhaps even crazier is that there are actually 65 teams that turn the ball over more than us. But as my brother pointed out – the only game we really turned the ball over bad was against Northwestern and Michigan State.
Game:
Three Biggest Keys to Getting an Iowa Victory (in order of importance):
1) Winning the turnover battle
2) Winning the field position battle
3) Rick Stanzi not being so shaky/mistake prone early in the game
And #1 and #3 are intimately attached to each other like Sonny and Cher; I bet we’re all thinking the same thing: It’s all about the turnovers this week. The last two games have been decided by 4 points or less – with last year being in Camp Randall when they were obviously the better team. So unless there’s a landslide in the turnover margin for one team, I can’t imagine this being a blow-out in either direction; it’s just how this game goes.
I think we’ll do OK against the run, but they’ll run on us. I think they’ll get a few passing yards, but they won’t kill us through the air. I just think this will be how it goes because this is what NOBODY is expecting: The Hawks will actually play well and not turn the ball over…but still get beat.
I’m sorry…I can’t stop my gut on this one:
Wisconsin Badgers 19 - Iowa Hawkeyes 17
Week 3 “Precarious Predictions”
YTD NCAA Record 22-21-6
Last Week 3-6 (ouch)
Iowa ATS 3-2
That was a sneaky good day of games last Saturday (I wish I coulda watched the entire Texas/Oklahoma game instead of just the 4th quarter); this Saturday is pretty good as well. A few questions for y’all:
- I’m not sure if there was better timed show (tongue firmly planted in cheek here) than the Big Ten Network’s timing of rolling out “THE GREATEST STORIES OF MICHIGAN FOOTBALL”…the same day that Meeechigan loses to Toledo! HAHA!
- I know the Big 12 offenses are great, but what about how bad their defenses are? The only Big 12 team that has a good defense is Oklahoma (ranked 23rd in total defense, one spot behind the Hawks), and they just got 45 put on ‘em.
- Isn’t this a fun year to check out the polls every Sunday? I had NO IDEA who was going to be #1 (Texas or Alabama) and how they would rank the top 3 (Texas, ‘Bama, Penn State). Why isn’t Oklahoma State #3 or #4? Haven’t they had just as many quality wins?
Games of note – 9 games predicted (including Iowa):
Saturday
Purdue @ Northwestern – 11 AM / BTN / Line: North by 4
Perhaps not a marquee game on Saturday, but one that could have big ramifications for the Hawks’ bowl spot later in the year. Also, I really like Northwestern against a struggling Purdue offense.
Northwestern covers easily.
Indiana @ Illinois – 7PM / BTN / Line:
Both of these teams are coming off of crushing losses. If Indiana doesn’t win this game, they will fold like Origami the rest of the year; the same could be said for Illinois! I have to think that even Ron Zook will be able to realize that he has to get his team up for this game. Also, I really think that Indiana is that bad.
Actually…Zook is that big of an idiot.
Indiana and the points.
Nebraska @ Iowa State – 11:30 AM / No TV / Line: NE by 7
What the heck happened against Baylor? I get that it was a night game and it was on the road, but they got blown out without really turning the ball over. ISU could be in trouble – maybe that Iowa loss hurt them more than we thought? Or maybe it was the Kansas game? Help me out ISU fans…
Nebraska covers easily.
Meeechigan @ Penn State – 3:30 PM / ESPN-HD / Line: PSU by 23
When did you ever think you’d see Meeechigan this big of a dog?!?!??? Wow. The thing is, Penn State shows no sign of slowing down and Meeechigan no sign of speeding up. But this is a pride-filled team and that’s a LOT of points.
Meeechigan and the points.
#16 Kansas @ #4 Oklahoma – 2:30 PM / ABC-HD / Line: Ok by 21
This is a tough game, as you have to wonder what the psyche of each team is right now. Something tells me that Oklahoma is pissed, and Stoops is preaching that they can still win the Big 12 and still get into the BCS Championship (true, although the BCS game will be tough since there’s an anti-Oklahoma sentiment out there).
Kansas hasn’t really been that good on the road – I smell a blow-out – but that’s a LOT of points.
Kansas and the points.
#22 Vanderbilt @ #10 Georgia – 11:30 AM / ESPN / Line: Georgia by 14.5
What do we know about Vanderbilt? Not much – their best win is…Auburn (14-13)? And they’re coming off of a loss to a 2-4 Mississippi State team. THIS is the 24th best team in the country? I would LOVE for the Hawks to play this team on a neutral field.
Georgia is still a good team – they had a tough game against Alabama but rebounded nicely the past weeks against Tennessee; and their at home.
Vandy and the points (but not if it goes under 14).
Big Ten Game of the Week:
#12 OSU @ #20 Michigan State – 2:30 PM / ABC-HD / Line: OSU by 4
The secret is out that THE Ohio State does not have a very good offense; they haven’t lost a game since Pryor took over, but they’ve been lucky to do so. Their defense, on the other hand, has been pretty good. The biggest problem their defense has? Getting to the QB.
This does match-up pretty well for Ohio State: The way to stop Michigan State is to shut down Ringer and pressure Hoyer. I think they’ll certainly slow down Ringer…but he’ll still get his big play in the 2nd half. My biggest question is whether or not OSU’s D-backs can shut out Michigan State’s WR’s. This would neutralize the lack of pass rush from Ohio State.
On the flip side, we have weakness vs. weakness with Michigan State’s defense and OSU’s offense. Unless there’s a swing in the turnover margin, this is probably where the game is won or loss; and I don’t think OSU’s offense is ready to explode just yet.
Michigan State and the points.
Game of the Week:
#11 Missouri @ #1 Texas – 7 PM / ABC-HD / Line: Texas by 5
What was wrong with Missouri’s offense during the Oklahoma State game? A further look shows that Chase Daniel still had a pretty good game, but Missouri didn’t run the ball well and they turned the ball over 3 times. Missouri can still put up points, but two weeks on the road is not easy.
Texas was amazing on offense, and even more amazing coming up with HUGE drives/scores when they needed them. However, did the Oklahoma game take something out of their mental game? That is, will they be up for this game like they need to be?
But couldn’t you make the same argument for Missouri? Yes – and Texas is at home for a night game. Hook ‘em.
Texas covers.
N ational F ootball L eague
- For the record, I have been telling people for weeks that Giants were over-rated and were ready for a fall – I just didn’t think it would be that soon and that bad on MNF against the Browns.
- And people say that college football is crazy? The NFL is ridiculous! It’s amazing how one player coming back from an injury – or one going on injury – can change an entire team overnight.
- Is Jerry Jones crazy? Yer darn tootin’. But you have to give it to that man – he loves to win.
- No bets this week – I’ll be too busy on Sunday
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GO HAWKS!
-Jeffrey the Greek!
IOWA VERSUS WISCONSIN STATS (through 7 games):
Iowa Wisconsin
Offense
Offensive Scoring:
49th (28.5 ppg) 64th (25.1 ppg)
Total Offense:
44th (387 ypg) 46th (382 ypg)
Rushing:
31st (187 ypg) 21st (200 ypg)
Passing:
75th (200 ypg) 91st (186 ypg)
Defense
Defensive Scoring:
5th (10.9 ppg) 53rd (22.7 ppg)
Total Defense:
22nd (282 ypg) 44th (321 ypg)
Passing
25th (184 ypg) 57th (200 ypg)
Rushing
18th (98 ypg) 44th (121 ypg)
Team
Turnover Margin:
T-55th (00.0) T-55th (00.0)
Posted by Jeff Buch 
