There is still some college football to enjoy…and perhaps even enjoy it stress-free as us Hawk fans don’t really have a dog in the hunt.

-

Thud

I don’t know how else to say it: That was a shitty effort to end the season against our newest rival.  (I took it surprisingly well, as I made myself enjoy the rest of my Thanksgiving weekend and put it out of my mind.  However, subsequent thoughts throughout this week about the game made me want to puke in my coffee.)

About the Game: I thought the entire Defense played really well; you can’t blame them for wearing down late when they were out on the field the entire freaking game.  I also thought that the OL played well…but that Marcus Coker looked tired (understandably), our WRs looked uninterested, and that JVB played like he was starting his first game on the road.

I still love me some JVB, and I’m glad that he’s our returning QB next year.  However, he HAS TO get better on the road next year (especially looking at our road schedule in October and November), and overall he HAS TO be more accurate.  He won’t have Marvin McNutt to bail him out.  And he has to give his receiver the ball with the ability to keep running.  With that said…it would be nice if his receivers could actually catch the ball more often.  Hurumph.

-

Stale

That’s the word that I’ve heard over and over again the past week describing theIowaoffense, if not the Iowa Football program in general.

A few thoughts:

* Keep in mind that the Hawks are still going to a bowl – and this is the 10^th straight year that the Hawks have been bowl-eligible under Ferentz.  A quick mental audit says that in the B1G, only Ohio State and Wisconsin can also make that claim.  Also…this was the youngest team in the conference going into this season.

* We are only 2 years removed from an 11-2 season with an Orange Bowl victory (the only BCS-level win by the program in about 60 years).

* Ferentz’s bowl record is amazing, and it’s not like the Hawks have ducked competition during that time.

* I like that fact that Kirk Ferentz is the new Dean of Big Ten Coaches…and I’d like to hang onto that for a little longer. 

-

With that said…

…I think a little coaching shape-up would be aok.

I love what Norm Parker has done with his time atIowa, and he deserves to be mentioned as one of the greatest D-coordinators inIowahistory along with the great Bill Brazier.  But his time has come.  He’s not doing any recruiting, and I think Iowa REALLY needs as much help as possible out on the recruiting trails, especially with the recent upgrades in coaching at Minnesota, Illinois (to come), and Penn State (to come).  I hate to sound like a Tavern-Hawk, but a little infusion of fire from a young, hungry D-coordinator would be interesting.

I also think that another set of eyeballs on the offensive side of the ball is needed.  I still want to run the same Pro-Style, run-first, “old school” offense that we’ve run the past 30+ years.  But there is a need for some more creativity in certain areas, especially when you have a QB that’s obviously struggling (like how JVB was against bothPennStateandNebraska).

So once again….I want Kirk Ferentz to be our coach for several more years.  I just want to see a few small tweaks to spark things up.  I don’t think that makes me sound TOO Tavern-Hawk like…

—–

The Bowl Sit-you-aayy-tion

Obviously I’m just going off of info from what I read online, and also using a little bit of common sense (something that several web site lack, as they often times don’t take into consideration such things as travelling fan-base, if the team was there recently, etc.)

Under the assumption that Wisconsin will beat Sparty, which is n all-too-often-made assumption (more on that later), this is how the B1G bowl pecking order will go:

1) 10-2Wisconsin        – Automatic – B1G Champs.

2) 10-2 Meeechigan     – Name brand + rejuvenated fan base.

3) 9-3  Nebraska        – Rabid fan base w/ new bowls to travel to.

4) 10-3 MichState       – Getting screwed yet again

5)6-6  Ohio St              – Sucks…but it’s the name brand.

6)9-3  Penn St             – Controversy hurts…but they’re still a draw.

7) 7-5  Hawks             – Not even sure if an 8-4 record woulda helped.

8 ) 6-6  Northwestern    – Unique brand of football/Dan Persa.

9) 6-6  Purdue              – Ehh…its b-ball season.

10) 6-6 Illinois              – Possibly staying at home?

—–

If I Had a Choice

These are my choices in bowls for the Hawks – in order – taking into consideration where the game is played, the importance, and who we play.  I also give a percentage of us getting there, which has less scientific value than an episode of the original ‘Land of the Lost’:

1^st Choice:

Gator Bowl  (Jacksonville, Florida)

Monday, January 2^nd (NOON)

Chances: 5%

Projected Team B1G will Play: Florida Gators

This has been the bowl that myself + several Hawk fans have had their hopes up for the past several weeks; it’s a rather prestigious bowl against an S.E.C. team.  However, it looks like this ship has past Hawkeyenation after last weekend’s dud of a loss againstNebraska…coupled withOhioState’s inspiring performance against Meeechigan. Also…any bowl that can take name-brandOhioStateoverIowawill take that it…especially considering they may never have a shot at them again.  It’s not unrealistic to think thatIowawould have wound up here even if they would haven beatenNebraska.

2^nd Choice:

Texas Bowl  (Houston, Texas)

Saturday, December 31^st (11:00 AM)

Chances: 60%
Projected Team B1G will Play: Texas A&M
I may be in the minority here, as this bowl is actually two tiers lower than the Insight Bowl.  I like that this is a Saturday AM bowl on New Year’s Eve, and it will be against a Big 12 team with at least a little bit of tradition and clout.

3^rd Choice:

Insight Bowl  (Tempe, Arizona)

Friday, December 30^th (9:00 PM)

Chances: 30%

Projected Team B1G will Play: Texas (or) Baylor (or) Kansas State

The word out ofTempe,Arizonais that the straight-laced, Arizona Insight officials would like to avoid the ‘Penn State Experience’.  Also, the Insight set attendance records last year having Hawkeye fans swarm theTempearea.

The only real drawback here is that Hawks were just there last year.

However, there is a great chance at a very, VERY intriguing match-up with any of the three teams mentioned above.  I will also say that all three teams above scare the shit out of me too!  However, I’ll take that risk for a game that gets the fans/players excited…and also for a Friday night game that I’ll have all day to get tuned up for!

4^th Choice:

Ticket City Bowl  (Dallas,Texas)

Monday January 2^nd (NOON)

Chances: 5%

Project Team B1G will Play: SMU

I originally thought this game was played in the Jerry-Dome…but it’s played in the Cotton Bowl…so I really don’t like this bowl at all.  Nothing to gain…all bad.  It’s still a 1,000,000% increase in enjoyment over Detoilet, but it’s still bad.  But it would be a bummer to play a game on a Monday that nobody cares about…against an opponent that nobody cares about.  This would only make waves if we lost the damn game.

—–

Just for Laughs

November was ‘Mo-Vember’ – a month that is devoted to men everywhere growing mustaches to help support awareness for men’s health.  My gal’s buddy – also now MY buddy – Dan Popehn fearlessly grew out his ‘stache and had it on display off of Grand Avenue two weekends ago.

And another buddy of mine – Shane Madsen, a fellow Hawkeye fan – also grew out his mustache and wore it around for a week.  Perhaps this picture will not do a lot of justice for those you that don’t know Shaner, but the picture alone is too funny not to share!

Feel free to give to this cause!

http://www.movember.com/

———-

Week 14 “Precarious Predictions”

NCAA ATS                56-74-1

Last week ATS          3-7

Iowa ATS                    6-5 

———-

Big Ten Game of the Week

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP

(10-2) #15 Wisconsin vs. (10-2) #13 Michigan State

7:17 PM / FOX / Line: Bucky by 10

If I were a level-headed Badger fan…I would be CRINGING every time I heard a talking head (or) read an online article saying howMichiganStateis going to get run over by the Badgers.  Why?  BecauseMichiganState’s ‘Nobody Believes in Us’ card is growing, and this is after they’ve used it TWICE on the Badgers the past two years.

And then Vegas looked at the Sparty fire and threw big ol’ cup of WD-40 on it (makes a MUCH bigger pop than regular gas, btw) by putting a 10-point spread on the board.

Also, I’m not so sure how everybody is THAT confident in Sparty, seeing as how they dominated the Badgers 31-1 in the 2^nd and 3^rd quarter of their October game.

Actually…I AM pretty sure what people are seeing:MichiganStateplayed its best game of the year – by FAR – and still barely pulled out a win at home.

So with that said, if both teams play great,Wisconsinwill still win the game.  I have this feeling that NEITHER will play great, but that will still be enough forWisconsinto win (just not to cover).

Sparty + the points.

———-

Around the country

Friday Night

-

PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP

(6-6) UCLA @ (10-2) #9 Oregon vs.

7:00 PM / ESPN / Line: Ducks by 31 ½

I dare you to come up with a weirder and/or sadder back-drop for a conference championship game than what the Pac-12 has here.  With the rash of firings that just took place (all of them justified) I’m sure Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott hopes this is the lowest point of the newly defined league.

I know this is atOregon, and it’s certainly not hard to picture a deflated UCLA team walking off the field after getting beat 49-7.  But I HAVE TO give some consideration that UCLA is STILL playing for a spot in the Rose Bowl, and that the team and coaching staff will play loose and free.

UCLA + the points.

-

Saturday

(6-5) Iowa State @ (9-2) #11 Kansas State

11:30 AM / ??? / Line: K-State by 10

Pretty interesting game with “great story” K-State going against ISU, who beat OK State just two weeks ago.  YET…it’s still not on TV. The Big 12 is still kinda sad…

Kansas State covers.

-

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP

(12-0) #6 Houston vs. (10-2) #24 Southern Miss

11:00 AM / ABC / Line: Houston by 14

Probably my most favorite line of the week, as I think this is by far the best team thatHoustonas played all year, with a good defense and more than capable offense.

IOWABOWL NOTE: Feel free to cheer forHouston…unless you want to see an (11-1)Houstonin the TicketCityBowl againstIowa…which could very easily happen!

Southern Miss + the Points.

-

(7-4) #22 Texas @ (8-3) #17 Baylor

3:30 PM / ABC / Line: Baylor by 3

Texasis SO over-rated at #22.  Baylor is SO under-rated at #17.  I just don’t thinkTexaswill have enough fire-power to keep up on the road with Baylor, playing against an RG3 who is gunning for a trip toNew York.

Baylor covers.

-

S.E.C. CHAMPIONSHIP

(12-0) #1 LSU vs. (10-2) #14 Georgia

3:00 PM / CBS / Line: LSU by 14

If you put a gun up to my head and ask who wins this game?…obviously I’d go with LSU; they’ve met every challenge thrown at them, and they are the #1 team in the country for a reason.

But I once again find it amazing that the same people saying: “There’s NO WAY that LSU is getting beat this weekend!!!”  -  are the same people that thought Oklahoma State would walk into Bedlam without getting beat, or that Oregon wouldn’t get challenged, or….

Anything can happen. Georgiahas a good defense and one of the better QBs in the S.E.C.  And the scariest thing of all?  They have NOTHING to lose.
Georgia + the points.

-

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP

(11-1) #5 Virginia Tech vs. (8-3) #20 Clemson

7:00 PM / ESPN / Line: Va Tech by 7

The thing that’s been killing Clemson the past month is that they haven’t had a healthy Sammy Watkins since about mid-October.  He stretches the field and makes THAT big of a difference.  Rumor has it that he’s healthy now and ready to roll.

But it’s hard to pick against Va Tech, who’s been in this game, seemingly, every year since the ACC had a conference championship.

Va Tech covers.

-

NATIONAL GAME OF THE WEEK

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP**

(10-2) #10 Oklahoma @ (11-1) #3 Oklahoma State

7:00 PM / ABC / Line: OK St by 3 ½

(** This is NOT an official Conference Championship game, but ironically it has the most riding on it as compared to any of the ACTUAL conference championship games!)  Also – it looks like I’ll have to rig up the double-TV on Saturday night, as I’ll want to keep an eye on this game on the small TV as I watch the B1G Championship on the big one.

Pros for OK State: There’s simply a better team, as shown by the fact that their only loss was in double-OT, on the road, with a distracted team.

Pros forOklahoma: They’ve been here before, and they own their little brother.

But I’m going on only my gut: anOklahomawin in a shoot-out.

Ok State + the points.

———-

ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GO HAWKS!

- Jeffrey the Greek!

Hello football fans!!!

First off:

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!

I’m Happy Man

Welp…the Hawks won last weekend in what can only be described as the ugliest ass-whoopin’ that I’ve ever seen in a football game.  Sure…the Hawks should have/could have won by at least 10 more points.  But in the end, a road win in the B1G is a road win in the B1G.

———-

Iowa Hawkeyes  @  #21 Nebraska Cornhuskers

FRIDAY – 11:00 AM / ABC / Line: ‘skers by 9 ½

The Heroes Game is finally here.  Wow.  It’s almost surreal.  I know that a “rivalry” is not something that just starts…it happens over time and with unique stories.  But I wonder if this is an exception?  I mean…my Gosh…I hate this fan base.  (I’m sorry Russ, if you’re reading this…as you are an exception to the rule!)

There is no doubt in the world that Nebraska has the better tradition and history.  That’s obvious.  Just as it is obvious that the Hawkeyes have had a better run in the past 10 years as compared to Nebraska.  (Iowa has won 2 Conference Championships, Nebraska – 0. Iowa has been to two BCS games, Nebraska – 0.)

Anyways…you wouldn’t know any of that by talking to their fan base.  EVERY YEAR is another year to expect a National Championship…ignoring such facts as how bad their coaching was for the better part of a decade, or how consistently horrible they looked in big games.  And the whole “We’d win the Big Ten Championship every year if we were in the Big Ten!!”…welp…you’ve been absolutely DESTROYED on the road twice, and have even lost at mighty Memorial stadium to “lowly” Northwestern.  So that’s an end to that.

What Up?

This might as well be called the “Jekyll and Hyde Game” – as both teams are about as easy to figure out as Chinese trigonometry. Nebraska had all the reason in the world to go into The Big House and play a good game last weekend, but instead laid an egg of epic proportions.  (Sidenote: I am finding Nebraska losses in the B1G as fun to watch – almost – as wins by Iowa.  Lllllove it.)

As far as the emotional side of things…I have to wonder if the advantage favors the Hawks?  The only reason I say that is because Iowa had every reason TO lay an egg in West Lafayette last weekend…and instead played very well.  This is the first game back for Nebraska– and their over-expectant fans – after they have been mathematically from winning a conference championship, or even getting to a BCS bowl.

Not that the Hawks don’t have a distraction or two, as provided by an angry Mika’il McCall last weekend.  Here is that mysterious post here:

Not that bad, but still not something that you can put up with if you’re Kirk Ferentz.  YOU ARE A RUNNING BACK.  YOU DO NOT FUMBLE.  That is a rule that was explained to me when I was about 8 years old.  With that being said, I would put the chances of McCall staying with the team at about 0.005%.  I hope I’m wrong.

I hope the Hawks understand – and I believe many of them do – just how badly Hawk fans want this game.  Will I ever be happy that we lost to lowly Minnesota this year?  No.  But even as a transplanted Iowan living in Minnesota…I would gladly give up that game if it meant a win in this one.

—–

The Players

Now its time for many Hawk fans to get a living, breathing test against QB Taylor Martinez.  All the jokes have been written all year long about his throwing motion; I still believe that it looks like he’s throwing watermelon and that’s what I’m going with.  The thing is…he can actually “chuck” a pretty good deep ball…which is usually seen when he has a wide-open WR that’s gotten behind opposing DBs on play-action.  That is where Martinez can kill you; it sure isn’t when he sits back in the pocket and reads defenses.

When Martinez hands off the ball, he gives it to RB Rex Burkhead, who I would really like if he played for any other team in the country.  Burkhead was slowed down big time last weekend against Meeechigan’s active DL, and that in turn slowed down the entire Nebraska offense.

—–

The Match-Up(s)

It’s my personal feeling that Nebraska doesn’t have a strength NOR a weakness with either their offense OR defense; both are underwhelming at times, and both can have moments of greatness.  I cannot say that the Cornhuskers OL is either good or bad.  I cannot say that Nebraska’s DL is either good or bad.

—–

What Will Happen

Nebraskalost to Wisconsin because the Badger offense blew away the Cornhuskers and the Cornhuskers don’t have an offense to play catch-up. Nebraska lost to Meeechigan because the Wolverines DL owned the Cornhuskers OL. Nebraska lost to Northwestern because they played like shit and got caught up in the same Northwestern BS that all of us Hawk know all to well.

There’s no doubt that option #1 could happen: Iowa’s offense is quite under-rated and could potentially blow past Nebraska’s struggling (at times) defense.  In fact…I will go so far as to say that the ONLY way that Iowa wins this is game is if we are aggressive and put Nebraska on their heels right from the start.  Its not out of the question – it would be similar to how they looked against South Carolina in the Outback Bowl, or against Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl.

But I think its going to be a good game, and Nebraska will come up with a few more special teams plays and a turnover that will decide the game.

Nebraska Cornhuskers 28  -  Iowa Hawkeyes 23

———-

Week 13 “Precarious Predictions”

NCAA ATS                60-71-1

Last week ATS          6-5

Iowa ATS                    5-5

———-

BIG TEN

(9-2) Michigan State @ (6-5) Northwestern

11:00 AM / BTN / Line: Northwestern by 6 ½

What a WEIRD game to figure.  I don’t think there’s much doubt that Northwestern has more to play for, as they’re bowl-eligible but could wind up in Detoilet if things shake-out weirdly.  Meanwhile…Sparty could rest their starters on both sides and nobody would blame them, as they’ve already clinched a spot in the B1G Championship game.

I wouldn’t blame anybody for taking Northwestern and the points (especially since I’m about ready to pick against them) but I have a feeling this is just too much of a mis-match in favor of Sparty, and that they really want to get to 10, 11, and maybe even 12 wins.

Sparty covers.

-

(6-5) Ohio State @ (9-2) Meeechigan

11:00 AM / ABC / Line: Wolverines by 7

Every distraction in the world belongs to Ohio State.  If Meeechigan can’t win this game, they may never beat them again.

Meeechigan covers.

-

(5-6) Purdue @ (1-10) Indiana

2:30 AM / BTN / Line: Purdue by 7 ½

They shoot horses, right?

Purdue covers.

-

(6-5) Illinois @ (2-9) Minnesota

2:30 PM / BTN / Line: Ohio State by 10 ½

I have to think that Illinois is just DONE.  I bet if you took a secret poll of this Illini team…that most of the players (especially the non-Seniors) would vote to just stay home for the holidays.

Gophers + the points.

-

Big Ten Game of the Week

(9-2) #19 Penn State @ (9-2) #16 Wisconsin

2:30 PM / ESPN / Line: ‘sconny by 17

Much like the Iowas pread (that started at 10 ½ points) – I was SHOCKED to see this line this high.  I know that Wisconsin is a different beast at home…and I know that Wisconsin has shown the ability to blow out teams in games like this…but that’s a pretty great Penn State defense that Wisconsin is going up against on Saturday afternoon.

I’m definitely taking the points.  In fact…I’m calling the upset, as an unusually tight Wisconsin team gacks this one at home and let’s Penn State pull out the win: Penn State 23 – Wisconsin 21.

Nittany Lions + the points.

———-

Around the country

Friday

-

National Game of the Week

(10-1) #3 Arkansas @ (11-0) #1 LSU

1:30 PM / CBS / Line: LSU by 11 ½

I don’t want to bet against this LSU team, but that’s a LOT of points against a 10-win Arkansas team that has been a thorn in the side of the Bayou Bengals for quite some time.

Arkansas + the points.

-

Saturday

(10-1) #2 Alabama @ (7-4) Auburn

2:30 PM / CBS / Line: ‘bama by 21

Once again – WOW! – that’s a huge spread.  Isn’t this a rivalry?  Isn’t this on the road?  I know the emotions tend to fade at some point in the game, but that’s a lot of points against an Alabama offense that falls asleep behind the wheel at times.

Auburn + the points.

-

#17 Clemson @ #12 South Carolina

6:45 PM / ESPN / ‘cocks by 4

I believe that South Carolina is over-rated. I believe that Sammy Watkins will be healthy and makes all the difference in the world.

Clemson + the points.

-

#22 Notre Dame @ #6 Stanford

7:00 PM / ABC / Line: Stanford by 7

I honestly believe this is the lock of the week.  I think that Stanford matches up well with Notre Dame – I get that – but I also believe that Notre Dame will play their best game of the year and win by two TDs.  Just a feeling.

Notre Dame + the points.

———-

ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GO HAWKS!

- Jeffrey the Greek!

Just a tad late today…kinda like how the Hawks seemed as if they were a tad late getting to Kinnick Stadium last Saturday.  Hurumph.

I Don’t Ask For Much

Yesterday, whilst in my car, middle of Minnesota, by myself…I suddenly got a little annoyed.  Why?  Here’s what went into my head:

• The horrible Penn State crap.
• The annoying, ongoing conference realignment talk.
• Iowa losing two painful games, + 2 more.

Simply put, this has been the most annoying college football season in the history of the universe.  Am I ready for it to end?  I wouldn’t go that far…but there are a few things that I’m desperately asking the Football Gods for, to allow me to keep my sanity for the off-season:

1. Iowa finishes 7-5.

It just sounds so much better than 6-6.

2. Iowa plays in a decent bowl against an intriguing opponent.

This could also read “PLEASE don’t put us in Detroit!”

3. Nebraska doesn’t win the B1G.

I’m a HUGE Sparty fan now.

4. 13-0 LSU vs. 12-0 Oklahoma State in the BCS.

I know that many of you root for chaos when it comes to the BCS.  I too, have had this feeling in the past as well.  However, I don’t think there’s any question that there’s been PLENTY of bad news coming out of the college football world this year…so I could use a break in the month of Dec and early Jan.  What I’m saying is that a nice, clean #1 vs #2 in the BCS game would be great.

PLEASE!!!!

———-

Iowa Hawkeyes  @  Purdue Boilermakers

11:00 AM / BTN / Line: Iowa by 2 ½

(First off, PO’D that this game is on 11:00am at the same time as Minnesota, which means the freakin’ Gophers will bump the Hawks for the one HD channel on the BTN.  Hurumph.)

What Up?

Win – Loss – Win – Loss – Win – Loss – Win – Loss – Loss – Win.  That’s been Purdue this year, which I think is pretty much the definition of an ‘up-and-down’ year for the Boilermakers.  Somehow they lose to Rice on the road…but beat Ohio State last weekend at home.  Weird.  Much like the Hawks, Purdue has looked infinitely better at home, going 5-1 up to this point (lone loss is when they got crushed by Notre Dame).

Purdue now sits at 5-5, needing one more win to become bowl eligible; I have to think, however, that they know that 7-5 is much, MUCH safer for them to make a bowl.  After the Hawks this weekend, Purdue finishes on the road against their rival, 1-9 Indiana.

As far as the Hawks, they’ve been virtually eliminated in the B1G race and are already bowl eligible.  This means that the Hawks are playing for pride and for a better bowl game…so I hope that was enough for the Hawks to stay focused this week in practice?  We’ll see.

I have a feeling that the Hawks will be focused, as this doesn’t seem like a team that had its initial goals set in the sky (so therefore they’re not 100% dejected like they were last year).  They’ve also shown the ability to pick themselves up off the ground and fight; they came back from losing to ISU and down early against Pitt to win that game, as well as lay an egg in Minneapolis and then turn around and beat Meeechigan.

But what they have NOT shown the ability to do is win on the road.  Hurumph.

—–

The Players

For the 4^th week in a row, the Hawkeye OL faces a great DT in #93 Kawann Short.  He is much like the DL we faced last week – Jerell Worthy – minus the fake injuries for him to get a rest…  Purdue also has a very good CB in #21 Ricardo Allen, who is only a Frosh.

Is this going to be the week that Hawk fans finally see back-up RB Mika’il McCall again?…some signs point to yes, but we’ll see.

—–

The Match-Up(s)

I have to admit that I haven’t watched a lot of Purdue football this year, but I do know that they love to run the ball and try to control the clock.  I don’t think this bodes well for the Hawks, as we haven’t been able to stop a down-hill running game with our under-talented DL for pretty much the entire year.

As mentioned above, Purdue has a pretty good defense with two all-B1G players at both DT and CB.  This is also not a great match-up for us, as we have issues at both Guard spots (and advantage for Short), and are heavily favored at one WR spot (putting Allen on Marvin McNutt).  Running the ball away from Short with the quicker Mika’il Mccall could be HUGE for us this week.  Don’t get me wrong, I love how Marcus Coker has battled this year and made it a good season…but maybe McCall could provide a spark this weekend.

—–

What Will Happen

What I hope: That Iowa was flat last week (so therefore comes in alive this week), and that Purdue is down after an emotional win last week against The Ohio State.

What I think: That Iowa almost always plays flat in Purdue’s glorified HS stadium, and has looked bad on the road all year.

I also think that this is an incredibly good match-up for the Boilermakers, as they’ll be able to snuff out our inside running game and limit McNutt over the top.  Also, I just don’t like our DLs ability to stop any running game with a pulse, and Purdue’s definitely has a pulse.

I believe this will be a low-scoring game that will fly by because both teams will run the ball.  If the Hawks are going to come out of West Lafayette with a win, they’ll need to come up with some turnovers – or in the least – come up with some big plays on Special Teams.  Unfortunately, Purdue has a decided advantage in that category (Special Teams) and that will be the difference in the game.

Purdue Boilermakers 20  -  Iowa Hawkeyes 17

———-

Week 12 “Precarious Predictions”

NCAA ATS                53-66-1

Last week ATS          3-6-1

Iowa ATS                    5-4

—–

O…M…G…I am awful this year.  I am so bad that I’m a statistical anonymity.  I don’t get it. 

———-

BIG TEN

(2-8) Minnesota @ (5-5) Northwestern

11:00 AM / BTN / Line: Northwestern by 16

Tough to imagine Minnesota giving a shit about this game, and I would think Northwestern knows that it desperately needs this game to get to 6 wins with Sparty coming in next weekend.  However, that just seems like a little bit too many points.

Minnesota + the points.

-

(8-2) #17 Wisconsin @ (6-4) Illinois

11:00 AM / ESPN2 / Line: ‘sconnie by 15

Pretty much the same synopsis for this game as what I wrote above, except that the Badgers are playing for a B1G Championship birth, while Illinois is playing for…for…???  Welp they may be playing for their coach’s job, but that is a touchy subject that you shouldn’t ask The Zooker about (video is about ½ way down):

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/index/_/count/31

The sneaky thing about Illinois is that they’re defense has played well all year, so I don’t think that its out of the question that they can keep Wisconsin under 30 points.  But can they score more than two TD’s to get the cover???  It’s a tough call.  When in doubt, take the points.

Illini + the points.

-

(1-9) Indiana @ (8-2) #15 Michigan State

11:00 AM / BTN / Line: Sparty by 28

Too many points.  Sparty will be down after last weekend in Iowa City.

Hoosiers + the points.

-

(8-2) #21 Penn State @ (6-4) Ohio State

2:30 PM / ABC / Line: Ohio State by 6 ½

Whaaaaa? OhioStateby almost a TD?!?!

I honestly have no clue.  Once again, when in doubt I’m taking the points.

Penn State + the points.

-

Big Ten/National Game of the Week

(8-2) #16 Nebraska @ (8-2) #18 Meeechigan

11:00 AM / ESPN / Line: Meeechigan by 3 ½

Aaaaand our 114^th and last NOON B1G game!!!

I will be cheering for Meeechigan 99% as hard as I’ll be cheering for the Hawks.  In fact, I will have the dual TV thing going on tomorrow morning in my house so that I can have this game on the small TV.

However, I don’t expect to see very from Meeechigan, as the Wolverines and Denard Robinson come into this game as beat up as can be.  I think there’s a chance that Meeechigan under-rated DL could cause some issues for the Huskers, Rex Burkhead, and Taylor Martinez.  I hope so.

However, I’m not sure where the points are going to come from when the Wolverines have the ball.  This looks like a 21-17 game.

Huskers + the points.

———-

Around the country

Friday Night

-

(10-0) #2 Oklahoma State @ (5-5) Iowa State

7:00 PM / ESPN2 / Line: OK State by 27

I’m taking the bait…there’s just too much info here NOT to:

• ISU is coming off of a bye week.
• OK State is coming off of a short week.
• OK State now has distractions with the horrible news of the plane crash.
• OK State is looking forward to next week.

Will I be surprised to see a final score of 65-13?  Nope.  But neither would I to see OK State 28 – Iowa State 23.

ISU + the points.

———-

ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GO HAWKS!

- Jeffrey the Greek!

Hello football fans!!!

Sorry about no blog last week.  I was admittedly crushed after the loss to Minnesota, and I was also living out of my car from about Wednesday through Sunday.

SHOCKING, HORRIBLE, SAD…

I’m just going to go ahead and get past the topic of the year – if not the topic of the entire history of college football – and talk about the Penn State fiasco.

I will first assume that if you read this blog, you’re enough of a college football fan to know about the horrible chain-of-events in Happy Valley…which is now the most innaccurate name for of a football campus that has ever been.

Anyways, some thoughts:

• No matter what, the only real victims in this horrible, horrible story are the boys (who many are now young men) and their families.  I certainly feel horrible for the players on the team – especially the Seniors – but their lives will go on and they won’t have the deep emotional and mental scars that of the victims.
• Any coach that’s on the staff now that was also on the staff from 1999-2002 (which is basically the entire staff) almost certainly knew that something wrong was happening; these coaches are also suspect and should never coach at Penn State again.
• That includes interim-Head Coach Tom Bradley, who several years ago testified against the “devil” (he doesn’t deserve a Christian-given name for what he’s done, so that’s what I’m calling him).
• Perhaps the most shocking and despicable thing out of all of this is that the “devil” still had use of the Joe Paterno Football Complex as late as last week.  That honestly makes me sick to my stomach, and for me is the biggest reason why it was 100% the right call to remove Paterno from the program before the game on Saturday.
• I think there’s a possibility that this could set the Penn State Football program back a decade, and you could probably say the same for all of State College.  I don’t believe the next coach will have a shot…so we’re probably talking about the “coach that followed the coach that followed the coach” that will have success at Penn State Football and can shake this demonic past (currently the present).
• Perhaps I’m over-stating things in the bullet above, but am I?  If you were a recruit, how could you stay committed to Penn State when so much is in question?  A coaching change ALONE makes kids change their minds, so how can you expect these kids to stay committed when not only their future coaches will change…but the feel and history of the entire program?!?  I consider myself a very loyal person, but even I would be second-guessing my choice if I were a recruit.

• This is not only a horrible thing for Penn State…it’s a horrible thing for the B1G, for College Football, and for our society as a whole.
• Once again…I’m not trying to be too dramatic here…but if JOE FREAKING PATERNO can’t rise above and do the right thing…how many “common” will do so?  (Or is it possible that “common” people are a better representative of how things are handled by an everyday American?)  Is there any better (or worse?) example of the moral fiber of our country being eroded away than this?!?!?

• Another question that I can’t help but think: just how absolutely CRUSHED would I be if this whole mess was happening atIowa?  I told my gal on Monday night that I would be catatonic…overcome with both embarrassment and anger.  I heard a Penn State fan call in to a radio show this week, sounded like a middle-aged guy, and he said that he hadn’t been able to concentrate on work all week long.  I would feel the same way, and I think it’s even WORSE at Penn State, where Joe Paterno was nothing short of the Mayor of Happy Valley.

• And yes…I have felt heartbroken for JoePa himself.  I don’t think its blasphemy to say that you both feel for those little boys…and also feel for JoePa.  He was put in a HORRIBLE position – along with WR Coach Mike Miqueary – and that the true instigator in all of this is the “devil”.

However, there is no question in my mind that it was the 100% correct move for the Penn State Board of Trustees to fire Paterno right away, and not let him coach another game.  Why?  Because as much as I love this sport…IT’S JUST A GAME.  Letting Paterno coach after all of this would have been a direct slap in the face of all of those boys and their families.  I personally believe that forfeiting the rest of their games was not out of the question.  Alas, this was probably not the right call as it would have been unfair to people that aren’t even directly connected to the football program

Enough…is Enough

I live in Minnesota, which is a state filled with hunters, fishers, MLB fans, high school hockey fans, and NFL fans (kinda).  My point is that it’s me and a handful of people that are college football fans, and those people are usually also fromIowaor else Wisconsin.  Right now it feels tough to be a college football fan.  I’m sure I’m not the only one out there that feels this way.

First off, I hope this whole ugly scene somehow raises awareness for everybody to IMMEDIATELY REPORT any wrong-doings to the authorities if you happen upon something awful like this.  This is literally the only silver lining that I can think of.

I also hope that many people in positions of power throughout college football get a direct slap in the face that this is a GAME for all of us to ENJOY.  Get the damn conference stuff figured out. Penn State needs to do the right things for these victims and their families.  Then they need to over-haul the entire football program and Athletic Department so everybody can move forward.

Then we ALL need to get back to enjoy the one thing that should be the focus every Saturday: the play of these young athletes that really do love the game.

And by the way…it’s also okay if YOU cheer this weekend.  It’s okay if YOU enjoy the football game that you care most about this weekend.

Speaking of that…

———-

#17 Michigan State Spartans  @  Iowa Hawkeyes

11:00 AM / ESPN2 / Line: Sparty by 3

What Up?

Sparty comes into this game 7-2, with one of the most impressive, complete-game wins by beating Wisconsin 3 weeks ago; that was when Wisconsin was “unbeatable” and their win at home was as impressive of a performance as any team up to that point in the B1G.

Fast-forward three weeks later to the present…and now we see that Wisconsin has dropped another one and that Sparty easily played their best game of the year, if not since the entire time that Mark Dantonio has been their coach.  Additionally, Sparty didn’t even bother to show up against Nebraska (getting drilled 24-3), and had to come-from-behind to beat Minnesota.

Simply put, if it weren’t for the Iowa Hawkeyes, Sparty would be the most schizophrenic team in the B1G.

(Sidenote: The tough Michigan State win last week over the Gophers is either indication of how much Sparty is struggling, or how much better the Gophers seemed to have gotten.  I hope it’s the latter, but really…both could be a good sign for us.)

As far as the Hawk are concerned, it was nothing short of a season-saver last week against Meeechigan, even if it took me about 45 minutes after the game for my heart-rate to settle under about 300 bpm.  I’ll take it either way…hopefully the day that game took off my life will wind up being a shitty one.

Simply put – the Hawks look better at home – and I expect them to keep that up this weekend because:

1) This has become quite the rivalry, which brings focus.

2) We know they want us after we “ruined” their season last year.

3) This is Senior Day – an emotional day that’s hard to put into words.

—–

The Players

Michigan State’s QB is #8 Kirk Cousins, yet another guy that seems like he’s been there forever, and who I believe celebrates his 37^th birthday on Saturday.  Articles upon articles have been written about how intelligent of a guy Cousin is, and how great of a leader he is.  I believe this to be true…but sometimes I wonder just how great of a QUARTERBACK he is; I see him make about 2 or 3 really dumb plays a game.  (At the end of the Wisconsin game, he SHOULD HAVE ended the game after he fumbled the ball, but his OL jumped on it.)  I hope he makes his quota of head-scratchers again this weekend.

As usual, Michigan State has a talented stable of RBs; this year its starter #4 Edwin Baker, and back-up #24 Le’Veon Bell.  Bell is my favorite non-Hawk RB in the B1G, mostly because of his game – I think he’s miles better than Baker – but also because I like to say his first name (Pr: Lay-vee-ON) about 25x a game.

Don’t look now, but Marcus Coker is leading the B1G in rushing, and just might sneak into the P.O.Y. conversation along with Montee “Moneyball” Ball. This of course means that he’s on track for blowing a knee or contracting the Ebola virus…which means that Kirk Ferentz needs to take the chains back off Mika’ll McCall sometime soon.  I have a feeling that this week will be the week.

A season-ending injury last week to DT Dominic Alvis means that Norm Parker is definitely glad to see Tom Nardo come back from his injury, and rumor has it that Carl Davis is almost 100% for the first time this season.

I will stay away from scathing words that I could have for a starting Iowa CB…and instead choose to single-out the play of Senior DE Broderick Binns, who I believe is putting together an All-B1G campaign during his Senior year.  I love this kid, seeing as how he got beat out last year – never said a bad word publicly – and then has come out and been dominate.

—–

The Match-Up(s)

I watched the Gopher-Sparty game from last weekend, and I was nothing short of shocked to see just how much the Gopher OL was owning the pass-rush of Michigan State; there were times were the Sparty DL ended up FARTHER away from Marqueis Gray than closer to him.  I hope our OL can give JVB just as much time to pick apart the Sparty DBs…who I believe are spotty at times.

Although our defenses are different, I believe that Michigan State’s offense is darn-near a mirror image of Iowa’s.  Both teams want – check that, NEED – to establish the run to enable everything else to click.  The good news is that Iowa’s running game has been surging as of late, whereas Sparty’s has lost some steam.  Once again, I hope that’s a pattern that we continue to see this Saturday, as I suspect that we’ll flip the script and load the box on Michigan State like so many teams typically do against us.

—–

What Will Happen

To say these coaching staffs don’t like each other is an understatement; I firmly believe that Dantonio is a wolf in sheep’s clothing and that Kirk Ferentz can’t stand him.  Even though we’ve won 3 of the last 4, it’s hard for me to say that we have Sparty’s number.  Either way, this will be another hotly-contested slugfest like it’s been every year besides last year (when it was over by halftime).  I don’t think there’s any question that Michigan State was flat last week, and I chalk a lot of that flatness up to the fact they were looking ahead to the Hawks.

If Sparty can run the ball at will, there’s no doubt in my mind that we’re in trouble.  But they’ve been struggle at that, so I think we’ll be ok.  With this being a home game for the Hawks, I just don’t see a huge advantage either way.  I like the Hawks + the 4 points a LOT more than I like them as a money-line bet…as I believe the bookies have this one nailed.

But I HAVE TO go one way or the other…

Michigan State 24  -  Iowa Hawkeyes 23

———-

Week 11 “Precarious Predictions”

NCAA ATS                50-60

2 Weeks ago ATS      5-5

Iowa ATS                    5-3

———-

BIG TEN

(3-6) Rice @ (4-5) Northwestern

11:00 AM / BTN / Line: Northwestern by 16

It’s hard for me to put into words how much I enjoyed watching Northwestern “do what they do” against Nebraska instead of the Hawks.  I called my co-worker/Husker buddy on the way home the next day, and I simply said: “That’s what they always look like.  Now you sort of understand.”

A work buddy of my brother’s summed it up even better, adding: “The Big Ten looks a lot different from the inside than it did from the outside.” Also adding, “Every team in the Big Ten seems to get better as the year goes on, instead of the bad staying bad like in the Big 12.”  Perfect.

—–

It would hard for me to imagine that Northwestern doesn’t come out with some steam in this game, seeing as how it’s suddenly possible for them to make a bowl game with two more wins.

However, its very easy for me to see that this team is somehow better at home than they are away (they’re the only B1G team that you can say that about) and that they’ll be flat.  I’m seeing something like a 34-21 type of win for Northwestern.

Rice + the points.

-

(6-3) Ohio State @ (4-5) Purdue

11:00 AM / BTN / Line: Bucks by 7

I’ve decided that I’m going to cheer for the Boilermakers during this game.  Why?  I’m mostly afraid that with the turmoil at Penn State and with Wisconsin showing signs of issues…that Ohio State will somehow make it into the B1G Championship.

Also, Purdue is still VERY bowl eligible even with a loss, so they might as well get the full attention of the Iowa players if they pull off the upset.

Unfortunately, I think this line is a little bit too low, as Ohio State is absolutely running the ball down people’s throats, and Purdue isn’t exactly doing a great job of stopping the run.  This will probably be a 21-10 game.

Ohio State covers.

-

(7-2) 324 Meeechigan @ (6-3) Illinois

2:30 PM / ABC / Line: Meeechigan by 1

First off, I find it a direct slap in the face that Meeechigan is only a 1 point favorite on the road against Illinois, whereas last week they were favored by 4 over the Hawks.  Also…Meeechigan is coming off of a loss.  Hurumph.

This is a tough game to pick, as both teams have looked very poor that past several weeks, with Illinois looking especially poor on offense.

However, I have a feeling that OC Paul Petrino will have gotten a few things figured out in the past week, and will be ready to put some points up on the board against this Meeechigan defense.  Also, I personally believe that Meeechigan is feeling the heat a LOT more than Illinois is (bball season has started inChampaign).

Illinois + the point.

-

(7-2) #18 Wisconsin @ (2-7) Minnesota

7:00 PM / ESPN / Line: Badgers by 27 ½

Wow…how things have changed in Badger-land the past 3 weeks.  I have to say that I enjoyed their loss against Sparty as it was such a good game…aaaaand because I don’t want to see Bucky get TOO high up on the pedestal.  However, their loss toOhioStatedid nothing good for the B1G and took away any elite team from the conference.

However, I still think that Wisconsin is the best team in the B1G.  But this is just too many points for this game, as there are three huge reasons to take the points:

1)     Wisconsin is on the road

2)     Minnesota is improving

3)      This is a rivalry.

Something like 40-17.

Gophers + the points.

-

Big Ten Game of the Week

#19 (7-2) Nebraska @ #12 Penn State

11:00 AM / ESPN / Line: ‘skers by 3 ½

Now that I’ve gotten the above off my chest about Penn State, I hope its OK to say that it’s a real bummer that this game means almost nothing anymore, because this could have been a really cool and intriguing match-up.

One week ago, I felt that all the Xs and Os pointed to Penn State (I didn’t see how Nebraska was going to move the ball against this Penn State defense).  That still might be true, but now all the intangibles lean heavily towards Nebraska; I also know that Nebraska was looking past Northwestern last week to this game.  The Cornhuskers are going to come and beat a distracted Penn State team by about 14 points.

Huskers cover.

———-

Around the country

“Game of the Century…and what-not”

I was at the old Sports Column to watch the Alabama-LSU game, along with Zed and the “Cashman”…who cashed out before halftime of this game.  (Cash – I hope you read this.  Better showing next time, I hope!)

Two Things:

1)      I…was…PISSED that CBS (and also ‘SI’) gave a preview of this game by high-lighting previous #1 vs. #2 regular season match-ups of the past 40 years…but neither even mentioned the epic #1 vs. #2 match-up of Iowa against Meeechigan in 1985.  I guess a last-second kick & program-defining win over one of the most storied programs in college football history…isn’t enough to overcome the usual lack of respect that we get here in Iowa.  BS.

2)      Let’s maybe wait and call a game “The Game of the Century” until after it’s played, eh?  Not that a defensive struggle isn’t something that’s lost on me.  Trust me…I love it more than the spread and BS crap that we see most of the time.  HOWEVER…I’d like to say at least 1 or 2 TDs in a game to keep me completely interested.

Also, I want to watch an Alabama-LSU re-match in the BCS Championship about as much as I want to Charlie Weiss do naked sit-ups.  I could make some sort of argument if it wasAlabamathat won the game (in the same style).  But there is no way that Alabama deserves another shot at LSU when they lost this game at home, especially seeing as how they were unable to even make a FG after getting the first possession of the first OT session.  That is just…poor.

Which brings me to my next point: there is no doubt that Alabama and LSU have great and talented defenses.  However, here are the ranks (in total offense) that Alabama has faced so far this year:

KentState:       120^th (LAST)

PennState:       88^th

North Texas:    110^th

Arkansas:         23^rd

Florida: 94^th

Ole Miss:          113^th

Tennessee:        97^th

LSU:                87^th

AVG:               104^th

Now I’m not saying that Oklahoma State would drop 40 points on Alabama…but maybe just maybe they’d put up 28.  Any maybe just maybe that would be enough by 4 points.  I’m just sayin’.

And what am I sayin’?  I’m sayin’ that the defenses in the S.E.C. are good, but that is helped by the fact that the offenses are stinky, and that’s mostly because of the complete and utter lack of QB play.  And from what I can gather from my roughly two decades of watching football, QB play tends to be important.

I pray to the Gods that Oklahoma State somehow makes it through their schedule undefeated, as I believe they’re the only ones that have a shot at unseating Alabama for the right to play against LSU.  Also, it would be nice to see a different team in the BCS Championship besides ‘Bama, LSU (oops), Florida, Ohio State, Texas, USC, and Oklahoma.

If the season ended today, here is who I’d like to see play LSU (in order of the match-up that I want):

1)     Oklahoma State

2)      Stanford

3)     Boise State

4)      Clemson

5)     Alabama

I know there’s no shot of Clemson playing, and probably not Boise State.  With that said, I personally believe that IF the only two undefeated teams left at the end of the year are Boise State and LSU…THAT is the scenario that I’d be OK with Boise State playing for a national championship.  Screw it – give Kellen Moore and Boise State their shot.

If that game had to be played on blue turf, however, I’d take Alabama and the re-match in a heartbeat.

—–

Thursday Night

(8-1) #10 Virginia Tech @ #15 (7-2) #21 Georgia Tech

7:00 PM / ESPN / Line: Pick ‘em

I’m going to ignore the “Thursday night, geeked up team and crowd” aspect and pick the team with the better defense, and the better team overall.

Va Tech covers.

-

(6-3) #20 Auburn @ #15 (7-2) Georgia

2:30 PM / CBS / Line: Georgia by 12 ½

I have to admit, every win by Georgia makes Boise State look that much better.

This looks like too many points by about 5.

Auburn + the points.

-

(7-2) TCU @ 5 (8-0) Boise State

2:30 PM / Versus / Line: Boise by 15

Too bad that I won’t be watching this game…as its @ Boise State on that ugly blue turf.  It’s just not worth it, and I don’t get why the Boise State administration doesn’t get that either.

This is a tricky line, as one would think that Boise will come out firing, knowing that their BCS Title hopes rest on not only a win, but a great performance on a game that just may move the needle a little bit.  But oh…wait…it’s on “Versus”.

Also, I believe that Gary Patterson will dial up a few surprises, as Boise State has been extremely one-dimensional, as they can’t run the ball very well this year since Doug Martin went down with an injury.

TCU + the points.

-

NATIONAL GAME OF THE WEEK

(8-1) #7 Oregon @ (8-0) #7 Stanford

7:00 PM / ABC / Line: Stanford by 3 ½

There are only two teams ranked in the Pac-12, and here they are.

Sidenote: Since these are the only two ranked teams in the Pac-12…is the Pac-12 really a good conference?  Who is the third best team? Arizona State?  Is that the same Arizona State that just got beat by UCLA and only scored 14 points in their loss toIllinois???

And THIS conference is considered better than the B1G?!?  Is this the same conference that just got done with a HORRIBLE bowl season the past two seasons?  And how about the only tough team that either of these teams has played –Oregonvs. LSU – resulted in a loss??

OK…I’m done.

—

Oregon comes in getting healthier and looking better the past few weeks, while Stanford has accrued a bad injury just about every week for the past month.  Also, Oregon has had its share of crazy-big games in the past 2 seasons, while this is only Stanford’s second (last Orange Bowl against Va Tech is the other).  I think that adds up to a gigantic coaching swing onOregon’s favor.

But Stanford HAS…Andrew Luck.  And Andrew Luck just might be enough to off-set all the things that are pushing many a gambler to bet HARD on the Ducks. If Stanford pulls this off, they deserve all the credit in the world.

I firmly believe this will be a great game.  But seeing as how I thought I’d see Oregon favored by the same amount that they’re dogs…methinks I like this line.  I’m taking the gambling bait, sucker-bet be damned.

Oregon + the points.

———-

ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GO HAWKS!

- Jeffrey the Greek!

Hello football fans!!!

Away Game…At Home

It’s always surreal for me when Iowa comes to my city of Minneapolis, as I get to watch the Hawks in-person…and then I’m only 15 minutes away from my house after the game.  This came in handy last year, as I wasn’t able to successfully recite my middle name within 2 hours of the game ending.

Win or lose, I still boo…well…I’m actually staying out with parents this time.  Poor Jim and Cath last year.

———-

“Christ…hit a house!”

I can’t get a solid weekend of picks to save my life.  I’m going to boldly take some form of credit with calling out that we were due for a crazy weekend, and we got it with upsets of West “by God” Virginia by Syracuse, Wisconsin by Michigan State (I picked that one, at least), and then finally the biggest one of all: Oklahoma by Texas Tech.

What was also funny was listening to the talking heads saying “well this is college football!!!”  Welp…I never heard ONE OF THEM (ok…maybe Herbstreit) step and say that there’s a good chance that several – if not all – of the undefeated teams will go down by the end of the year.  Several things play into this every year: injures, “down” weeks after a big game, crazier weather, and all of this is mixed into the fact that we’re deep into conference play where the intensity and familiarity with teams gets jacked up.

And we’re not done.  Obviously either LSU or Alabama will get picked off next week.  And I think Oklahoma State and Stanford better have their hats on square.

The one team I’m starting to believe in?…Clemson.

———-

Iowa Hawkeyes  @  Minnesota Golden Gophers

2:30 PM / BTN / Line: Hawks by 16

What Up?

The Gophers are winless in the B1G, with their first 3 conference games being blowouts to the tune of 144-31 (avg 48-10).  Newsflash: Head Coach Jerry Kill (who I like, btw) does not want to go winless in the B1G during his first year, and after the Hawks leave town the Gophers hit the road to play Sparty and then back home for Wisconsin.  Ouch.  So the word around town (and it’s a word you have to listen hard for because nobody gives a rat’s ass) is that THIS is the game where Kill and the Gophers can get that win.  Rivalry game.  They beat us last year.  And it’s not like they’ll be facing a brick wall of a defense.

However, Minnesota is still a bad-looking 1-6.  At times the Gophers have looked like – arguably – the worst team in a BCS conference (Oregon State & Kansas would also be in the running).  After a great effort to start the year against USC, Minnesota went into the tank losing to New Mexico State, and then eventually to 1-AA North Dakota State.  At the time, those looked like two of the worst losses in Minnesota history…which is saying a lot considering the source of history.  However, New Mexico State is an improved program at 3-4, and NDSU is 7-0.

Last Saturday (after watching the Hawks on TV) I went to TCF Field to watch Minnesota take on Nebraska.  I guarantee that over half of the TCF crowd was wearing red, and I think it was closer to 2/3.  I seriously doubt that Iowa fans will look as “dominate” this Saturday, especially when you consider that some Hawk fans will wear gold (also a Gopher color), and I believe there’s still some “we miss the Metrodome” sentiment.  Either way, some things don’t change, regardless of the stadium.

As far as the Hawks, they come into this game on a 2-game winning streak, thanks in large part to an offense that has looked amazingly balanced and explosive.  But that enthusiasm is easily curtailed when you realize that it was against 2 of the 4 worst defenses in the B1G (with the other two playing this Saturday in Minneapolis).

Also, the last two games were in Kinnick…and this Iowa team has looked infinitely better at home than it has on the road.  Looking at the Hawks home-vs.-away is basically the equivalent of how your date looks with beer goggles on and without.  10 @ Home, 2 on the Road…type of deal.  Unbelievably, the Hawks have not won a road game since barely beating Indiana over a year ago.

Yeesch.

—–

The Players

Minnesota’s QB is #5 Marqueis Grey, who is an absolute monster of an athlete; I was amazed at how massive he was when I was close to the field last Saturday.  I honestly think he could play WR, TE, and even DE.  He is not, however, an absolute monster of an accurate QB.  He missed several open receivers last Saturday, but I think at times his own WRs had some blame for that as they’re not on the same page.

I’m not going to look up all of Minnesota’s front-7 players, but I will say that I think they’re more athletic than they’re getting credit for.  Also, they have a really good DB in #3 Kim Royston – who’s all over the field in both the running and passing game.  The issue with Minnesota last Saturday was the same issues I’ve seen in the past: really amazingly awful tackling.  I hope to the Gods that they miss as many tackles (and take as bad of angles) against us that they did against Nebraska.

Most Iowa fans are waiting to see if Keenan Davis can go, but I believe he won’t be able to after twisting his ankle last week againstIndiana.  The Hawk offense will need the pace to be picked up by early-season favorite KMM, and by a TE group that has gone missing for almost the entire 2011 season.

—–

The Match-Up(s)

Iowa’s OL vs. Gopher DL: Iowa can control the entire game if they re-set the L.O.S. and keep Marcus Coker going (not counting any back-breaking turnovers).  With oncoming Midwest weather heading this way, Ken O’Keefe has done a good job re-establishing the running game, and Coker has a lot to do with that.  However, I honestly believe the going will be tough for the Hawks’ OL against Minnesota’s DL, at least in the first half.  Things are getting back to normal, as teams will start loading the box to make us throw…especially when we’re on the road.

This is not a video game – so maybe I’m making things too simple – but there’s little doubt in my mind how to defend Iowa’s Offense: come right at the running game with B-gap blitzes (to force Coker to bounce it outside), then put a corner and safety over Marvin McNutt.  And that’s what we’re going to see…probably the rest of the year.

(Please dear Lord I hope we put some screens in the offense this week.  Where’s the old WR screen K.O.K. used to love?!?!  That shit will play now!!!  I also LOVED to see JVB tucking it and making things happen with his legs last week.  I would just like to see him slide instead, and methinks that Kirk Ferentz agrees.)

For the rest of the year, all the pressure is on the Hawkeye Front-7, who I believe will be a bit healthier and a lot more motivated than they were last week; they need to step up for the first time in B1G play and make a statement.

But does Minnesota have the talent and to exploit anybody?  Against Nebraska, I swear I saw only 3 plays from Minnesota the entire first half: Zone-read (QB-keep), Zone-read (to RB), & 3-step-drop to the TE or WR.  It didn’t work against Nebraska, who played their best defensive game of the year by a moon-shot…obviously Minnesota helped out with that.

—–

What Will Happen

Iowa is bad on the road, and Minnesota is just…bad.  I will be shocked if this is anything less than an unmitigated mess.  There will be turnovers and some ugly play on both sides; I am banking on Iowa to play well in what has been their most consistent area all year: Special Teams.  I see a blocked punt or big return for the Hawks being the difference in a game void of consistent offensive firepower.

We’re due for a low-scoring, nail-biting win:

Iowa Hawkeyes 23  -  Minnesota Golden Gophers 21

———-

Week 9 “Precarious Predictions”

NCAA ATS                45-55

Last Week ATS         5-6

Iowa ATS                    4-3

———-

BIG TEN  -  I think this is a GREAT bunch of conference games:

-

(2-5) Northwestern @ (1-6) Indiana

11:00 AM / BTN / Line: Northwestern by 10

Northwestern can’t catch a break, as they finally have a game on their schedule where they’re being favored to win, but Dan Persa comes in unhealthy.

I believe that Indiana has hit their stride on offense.  Also, with two shitty defenses like this?…you might as well take the 10 points at home.

Indiana + the points.

-

(4-3) Purdue @ #18 (6-1) Meeechigan

11:00 AM / ESPN2 / Line: Meeechigan by 14

I honestly think that Danny Hope needs to get some respect, here.  His team has faced an absolutely amazing amount of injuries, has had to play revolving QB (and NOT by his choice, unlike other B1G schools), but his team still continues to play hard.  Especially on defense, where they have more athletes than the get credit for.

And that 23-18 loss to Penn State looks even better now, doesn’t it?

An 11:00am Big House is not all that imposing, and I believe that Purdue can put a lot of the pressure on Shoelace that you saw out of Michigan State.  So basically…I’m banking on a lower-scoring game.

Purdue + the points

-

(6-2) Illinois @ #19 (7-1) Penn State

2:30 PM / ABC / Line: Penn State by 5

First off, why is this the 2:30 ABC game, and not either Sparty-Nebraska (or) Ohio State-Wisconsin???  This makes no sense to me, but I’m glad as I’ll get to see parts of the early games.

Wow…talk about two teams moving in the opposite direction!?!  When is Penn State going to get some credit, by the way???  This is a really, REALLY good defensive team, and now they’ve found a running game and have given the reigns over to McGloin.  This is a 10-win team, and one that Wisconsin suddenly has to worry about (down the line).

And Illinois has not showed signs of life for several weeks.  This certainly has the potential to be a 17-14 snoozer.  But I just don’t think that’s enough points in Happy Valley for the Zooker, especially with how poor the Illini offense has looked in the past several weeks.

Penn State covers.

-

(6-1) #15 Wisconsin @ (4-3) Ohio State

7:00 PM / ESPN / Line: Badgers by 7 ½

5 mins into the game last weekend, Badger fans were already looking past Ohio State.  Now?  Uhhh-ohhhh.

Do I think Ohio State is really good?  Nope.  Do I think they’re as bad as people are making them out to be?  Nope again.  And I also believe the past 3 weeks have been the quietest 3 weeks in Ohio State football in the past 10 years, and plenty of time to get a few things figured out.  And really?…that simply means getting their Frosh QB Braxton Miller healthy and ready to go.  And ya kno what?…word outta Columbus is that is exactly what Bucky is going to see.

Even more push for the Buckeyes?  Ohio State is also coming off a BYE week, frothing at the mouth with revenge, and this game is at the Horseshoe.  These are a few of Bucky’s scariest things.

However, you beat Bucky through the air…and I just don’t see Braxton Miller being able to do that with enough consistency.  This looks like a 28-17 game to me.

Wisconsin covers.

-

Big Ten Game of the Week

#11 (6-1) Michigan State @ #14 (6-1) Nebraska

11:00 AM / ESPN / Line: ‘skers by 4

Funny ‘sker Story #1:  There were Nebraska fans out in droves all around downtown Minneapolis on Saturday night.  And in a strange development, I was not getting more sober as the night went on…

While at the bar – just as the Nebraska-Michigan State game was starting – I spoke with one Nebraska fan that said: “There’s no doubt that we got our doors blown off by Wisconsin.  But let’s be honest…that’s the greatest Big Ten football team ever assembled!”

I obviously scoffed, only stating that Wisconsin certainly has a great offense, but that I wasn’t sold on their defense and that it most definitely is not “the greatest Big Ten team ever assembled”.

Then 2 ½ hours late Sparty beat Wisconsin and proved me right!  HAHAHAHAAHAA!!!  And wouldn’t you know that the little bastard wouldn’t talk to me!!!

Funny ‘scker Story #2: Taylor Martinez throws the football even uglier in person than he does on TV.  Heh, heh…

ANYhoo…I hope Sparty got that ‘W’ outta their system quick…because up comes a visit to Lincoln, against a Nebraska team that is also frothing at the mouth to show people that the Wisconsin game was a fluke.

Of course…I’ll be cheering hard for Sparty, and I believe they have a chance to make it really, really hard for Nebraska to move the ball with their athletic DL.  But I think the emotion of the past two weeks will be simply be too much for Sparty and Dantonio to overcome.  I just have this feeling that Nebraska will build an early lead, and not ever let it go.  Not a blow-out, but just enough:

Huskers cover.

———-

Around the country – I think there’s some GOOD GAMES this weekend before the 34^th Game of the Century next weekend.

-

Baylor @ #3 Oklahoma State

2:30 AM / ESPN2 / Line: OK St by 14

Pretty intriguing game.  And oh btw, the over-under is 80…and I like the over!

OK State is due.  They…are…due.

Baylor + the points

-

#5 Clemson @ Georgia Tech

7:00 PM / ABC (regional) / Line: Clemson by 4

I really believe in Clemson…especially when I see their schedule.  But Clemson can’t go undefeated, can it?  Nope.  There’s a reason why Georgia Tech is only a 4 point dog at home.

Yellow Jackets + the points

-

#6 Stanford @ USC

7:00 PM / ESPN2 / Line: Stanford by 7

Although USC deserves some credit for the nice year they’re having under weird circumstances, I don’t want to because I still think Lane Kiffin is a douche-bag, and so are most of his players.

There really isn’t a weakness to speak of with Stanford, other than their schedule.  Here’s a crazy stat: Stanford has beaten 8 straight teams by 24 points.  The last time that’s happened?  NEVER.  It’s never happened in the history of college football.  This could honestly be the team that plays the winner of the ‘Bama-LSU game.  I’m not betting against them until I see somebody at least get in their way.

Andrew Luck is over-rated…for the NFL.  I still really, REALLY like him for college football.

Stanford covers.

-

NATIONAL GAME OF THE WEEK

#8 Kansas State @ #9 Oklahoma

2:30 PM / ESPN / Line: OK by 13 ½

(BTW…I think that the Michigan State-Nebraska game is a bigger game than this one.  But this is still a pretty intriguing game.)

Not that I’m non-believer in Kansas State, I’m just a bigger believer in Oklahoma in these type of games (tough game, but not a HUGE game) and Oklahoma is mad as hell and isn’t gonna take it anymore.

Oklahoma covers.

———-

ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GO HAWKS!

- Jeffrey the Greek!

Credit Where It’s Due

There was much talk after last Saturday’s game that:

Northwestern had the ball longer…Northwestern had the advantage in total yards…Northwestern looked like the better offensive team.  I have one thing to say to that:  Scoreboard.

Don’t get me wrong, the Hawks gave up a butt-load of yards, and the late-scores made me cringe.  However, you HAVE TO give credit to Dan Persa and that annoying – albeit effective – offense.  Northwestern was never slowed down against Meeechigan, they only stopped themselves.  Same was true againstIllinoisthe week before that.  IT’S A TOUGH “O” TO DEFEND!  I don’t think it should be taken lightly that Norm Parker called Dan Persa “the toughest QB that I’ve ever had to defend”.  That’s saying something coming from a crusty, 40-year football veteran.

I continue to be encouraged by the improvement of our defense, in spite of what continues to be written.  Against Northwestern, we had lost 2 starting LBs and our 2^nd best DL.  And the Hawks STILL BALLED.

Props to:

* Tyler Nielsen playing well while outta position…with a broken hand!

* Broderick Binns playing like an early 2^nd day draftee.

* My boy Tom Donatell stepping in and playing really, really well.

Do I think this is going to go down as a Ferentz-era great Defense?  No.  But I’m done hearing how “bad” this Defense is – I’d still take them over ½ of the defenses in the B1G, as well as in the country.  Another way of saying this is if you think this is a bad defense, WATCH OTHER TEAMS.

———-

Good Play-Calling?

 That was some impressive play-calling last Saturday by O’Keefe against Northwestern.  But it appeared to be a bad game-plan and play-calling against Penn State the week before…

Same coach.

What if it’s simply the different defenses the Hawks faced?

Or MAYBE it’s because Ferentz/O’Keefe THOUGHT we were facing a bad defense (and a good offense that we’d have to keep up with) so they were simply more aggressive in their play-calling?!?

I have absolutely no idea what I’m talking about, and I bet neither do most of the ‘Tavern-Hawks’.

———-

We Pulled it Off

 I try to stay away from saying “we” when talking about the Hawks as I’m not currently on the team (I’m not always successful).  But this time I DO get to say “we” with accuracy, as I was in the crowd Saturday nigh when we pulled off a card-stunt that I was quite skeptical of.  It was awesome, and I’m kinda POd that the program didn’t get more publicity for it.  Still…it was great.

Here is an awesome time-lapse of the stunt/scene:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grOISS9NevI

———-

Indiana Hoosiers  @  Iowa Hawkeyes

11:00 AM / BTN / Line: Hawks by 23 ½

What Up?

To explain the 2011 Indiana Hoosiers, I will use an old James Dean Buch phrase: “They suck pond water”.  I’m still not sure that’s harsh enough to explain how poorlyIndianahas looked at time this year.  I will skip over the “Hoosier daddy?” reference, but it’s hard for me.  The Hoosiers are 1-6 (win coming against D-1aa team), have a new coaching staff, are young, and have questionable talent to begin with.

So why is it that myself and many other “non-tavern-Hawk” fans have an uneasy feeling for this game?  Because the Hawks should have lost last year, and because Stanzi had to come from behind to beat them in 2009.  Sometimes there’s something weird with one program and how it compares to another.  The best example I can give is how Ohio State has always had troubles with Illinois.  These things happen.

—–

The Players

With injuries and bad play, it’s been musical chairs at QB for Indiana.  Their best QB is #8 Dusty Kiel, but it looks like he’ll be shelved against this week with an injury.  So that means it will be #5 Frosh Tre Roberson.  He’s not ready.

At RB, the Hoosiers have started to pound the ball with #12, JUCO-transfer Stephen Houston; he is a 228 bruiser and he does pose a problem for our DL and smallish LBs.  I would come right at us if I was Indiana.  Time to wrap-up.

I am happy to report that #88, WR Damarlo Belcher is not only a Senior, but he’s almost certainly out for this Saturday’s game.

—–

The Match-Up(s)

Will Kevin Wilson ever give his Defense a break and quit running so many damn offensive plays?  THIS is the reason why you see so many blow-outs delivered to the Hoosiers.

At best, our DL is considered OK, and so is Indiana’s OL.  That’s about the only spot on the field where Indiana is equal or possibly better.  That’s how bad Indiana has been, and we better be able to take advantage.  I don’t think the Hoosiers have much of a choice other than come right at the Hawks running game and try to make us one-dimensional.  However…

What Will Happen

…Indianahas an even worse Rush Defense than Northwestern, and Marcus Coker and the OL are just hitting its stride.  I think that Marcus Coker will have a big, BIG day…unless it’s Marvin McNutt and James Vandenberg that decide to take over.

Either way, I am DONE with these bad performances against Indiana, and so is Kirk Ferentz.  This is not a good Indiana team; picture the 1999 Iowa Hawkeyes where people are still figuring out what to do, and the talent isn’t that good to begin with.  (I just talked sh*t about myself, by the way.)

We have been clicking at home (almost) all year.  And although Iowa isn’t a team that’s good enough to play only OK and blow-out their competition…this is a also not a team that believes it can sleep-walk through anybody.  We are going to take Indiana seriously, and we are going to show that we’re a better team.

Iowa Hawkeyes 31  -  Indiana Hoosiers 14

———-

Week 8 “Precarious Predictions”

NCAA ATS                40-49**

Last Week ATS         2-4

Iowa ATS                    3-3

———-

Time…For…CHAOS

** At this point…you’re probably gonna want to just bet in the opposite direction that I’m going.

(OR)

Get ready for a tidal-wave of sweet, sweet gambling redemption.  Why do I say that?  Because I honestly, honestly believe that I’m due for a major, major run.  And I think it starts this weekend.

There’s hasn’t been enough talk about “college football” lately.  What do I mean?  What I mean is that it’s about damn time to get NUTS up in here, because THIS IS HOW COLLEGE FOOTBALL GOES.  Every single year it looks like there’s going to be 4 or 5 undefeated teams…and then those same teams start getting picked off like a 3^rd grader’s booger.

And it usually happens in once crazy weekend.  I believe this will be the weekend:

———-

BIG TEN

#23 Illinois @ Purdue

11:00 AM / ESPN2 / Line: Illini by 4

Just when I had myself convinced that Ron Zook had handed over the keys to his coordinators, he has shown his ability to imprint his douche-baggery behavior on his team.  What a complete lack of focus that was last week against THE Ohio State.

I was banking on a bigger line than this, but I’ll take the points anyway.  I think Purdue will have the chance to win right down to the end.

Purdue + the points.

-

#13 Nebraska @ Minnesota

2:30 AM / ABC (or) ESPN / Line: ‘skers by 25

You call me crazy, but I’m interested to see how much better Minnesota looks after their BYE week.  Yes I know, Nebraska has been on BYE as well…but I don’t believe Taylor Martinez has learned to throw the ball any better than he did 2 weeks ago.

I just have this gut feeling that Minnesota is going to come out fired up, and that Kill has had a very, very quiet 2 weeks of development with his team.  I’m not saying that Minnesota is going to win, but I believe 100% that this Minnesota game won’t look quite as easy after this weekend that it does right now.

Gophers + the points

-

#21 Penn State @ Northwestern

6:00 PM / BTN / Line: Penn State by 4 ½

 PennStatejust might run the ball right down Northwestern’s throat with Silas Redd.  If that happens, you gotta like the Nittany Lions.

But all signs point to this being a bad match-up for Penn State’s defense; the Nittany Lion’s DL and LBs ability to get to the QB doesn’t matter much when Persa gets rid of the ball so quick, or when he gets away from pressure and puts it back on DBs.  And that’s where PennState is vulnerable.

Northwestern + the points.

-

National Game of the Week

Big Ten Game of the Week

#6 Wisconsin @ #16 Michigan State

7:00 PM / ESPN / Line: ‘sconnie by 7 ½

I will first off say that I was wrong, wrong, WRONG about the Spartans.  They are not a paper-lion, and they’ve somehow made their questionable OL stay together and improve.  I find that amazing.

There’s no doubt in my mind that this is the biggest road-block for the Badgers’ undefeated regular season (before they get to the B1G Championship).  Reasons why I’d be nervous if I were Bucky:

* First True Road Game:

I don’t like to sound like all the other people bringing up this point, but I really do find it amazing that we’re almost at the end of October…and this is the first true road game for the Badgers.  Also?…this has been a house of horrors for Bielema, and those things can set-in if things start out poorly.  I honestly believe in these things.

* BADger DBs

Don’t get me wrong, Sparty need to run the ball to have success.  But there’s absolutely no doubt whatsoever that this is the best passing attack that the Badgers have faced all year.  Is the Badger secondary up for it???  There’s no way to tell until we tune in Saturday night.

* Sparty DL + Bucky WRs

I put these two together because I believe that Sparty has a great DL (even with Gholston gone), a good front 7, and have no choice but try to make Bucky one-dimensional.  This is no slap in the face of Russell Wilson.  However, it IS a slap in the face of the Badger WRs.  Nick Toon better take the top off the Sparty defense, or things could get interesting for the Badgers.

And I thin they will.  This is looking more and more like the start of something impressive for the Dantonio tribe.  There’s NO WAY this team should be this good after what I saw out of them against Notre Dame.  But here they are, balling their ASSES off and listening to their coaches. Wisconsin is ready to get plucked from their perch.

Sparty + the points.

———-

AROUND THE COUNTRY – Wow…whatta GREAT bunch of games, and what a GREAT chance to see a few teams get upset.  Like I said earlier…I expect to see some upsets.

—–

#4 Oklahoma State @ Missouri

11:00 AM / FX / Line: OK State by 7

 Damn you…you desert geniuses.  I really expected to see this line sitting around 13…but obviously they’re too smart for that.

You see, OK State’s dirty little secret is that they can’t stop a good running attack.  I think the late November 2008 Hawks will crush this OK State team.  Not that Mizzou is that good, but they’re good enough to give this OK State team a run for their money at 11:00am.

Mizzou + the points.

—–

North Carolina @ #7 Clemson

11:00 AM / ESPN / Line: Clemson by 10

I see why Clemson is on upset alert.  But I see more reasons why last week was Clemson’s wake-up call, and now they’re ready to make a run with a talented team.

Clemson covers.

—–

#20 Auburn @ #1 LSU

2:30 PM / CBS / Line: LSU by 21

I think this is an Auburn team that’s capable of staying with anybody, and capable of getting blown-out by almost anybody.

When in doubt, take the points.

Auburn + the points.

—–

Tennessee @ #2 Alabama

6:15 / ESPN2 / Line: ‘bama by 29

Bama won’t let Tennessee score 10 points…and I believe they’ll score about 42.

‘Bama covers.

—–

USC @ Notre Dame

6:30 PM / NBC / Line: Irish by 9

I didn’t think it was possible for NEITHER of these teams to be ranked, yet this still is an important game.  I still believe that Notre Dame is special; they only beat themselves the first two games of the year.  They just might wind up in a BCS bowl yet.

Kelly will out-coach Kiffin any day of the week.

Notre Dame Covers.

—–

#25 Washington @ #8 Stanford

7:00 PM / ABC / Line: Stanford by 21

What?!?!  I mean…WHAT?!?

I just don’t think Stanford has done enough to warrant a spread like that over a pretty decent Washington team.

Huskies + the points.

———-

ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GO HAWKS!

- Jeffrey the Greek!

What’s Wrong?…The Running Game

Wanna talk about how quick things can change in college football?  On Saturday Penn State was daring us to RUN the ball…as opposed to the other way around like it’s been since about 2003.   So the ‘Bizarro World’ continues.

I don’t believe there’s much to speak about with the defense, as not much has changed: We have a limited DL when it comes to experience and especially talent.  I believe that became painfully obvious whenPennStatewas shoving the ball down our throat with 250+ yards rushing.  Also added to that rushing total was our LBs inability to get off blocks.

So now we have even more proof that we’re in ‘Bizarro World’: Iowa’s D is more set-up to play against a spread O than a standard “Big Ten” offense.  So there you go ‘Tavern Hawks…you got what you want.

Moving on to the real problem from last Saturday, the fact that we only scored 3 points:

What HAS TO Improve:

1) Offensive Line.  I don’t think there’s any question this is the unit that’s played under their level of talent all year more than any other.  Pass blocking could be better, run blocking needs to be better.

2) Marcus Coker.  The running game is a delicate balance between the OL and the RB, and I don’t believe Coker is keeping up his end of the bargain.  We need a Jordan Canzeri spark, and I’m very excited to hear that McCail McCall could possibly be back in a few weeks.

What Penn State Did (and what everybody will do):

Lord knows I’m not in any danger of getting lifted from my current job of selling mechanical couplings to become a defensive coordinator.  But to me…it looked simple to recognize what Penn State was doing on Saturday.  And it was effective.  VERY effective.

1) They dropped their Safeties back about 20 yards off the L.O.S.  This shut down the 3-wide vertical routes that we ran against Pitt and UL-Monroe.

2) They’re bringing blitzes straight up the middle.  This was where the majority of the sacks came from.  This was effective in the passing game, but just as effective at limiting the running game.  Why?  Because I don’t believe Marcus Coker has the vision and quickness to find the cut-back lanes that are continually being left-over.

———-

“What to Wear”

So there’s a crazy two-apart “Wow Factor” that the Iowa P.R. group is trying to pull off on Saturday night.

The first one is the same “every-other-black-and-gold” deal that we saw a few years ago that was really, really cool.  Here is the section/color chart (look on the middle/bottom-right of the page):

http://www.hawkeyesports.com/sports/m-footbl/iowa-m-footbl-body.html

The new thing that the P.R. Dept. is doing is for A.N.F. – which stands for ‘America Needs Farmers’ (if you are either born under a rock or not fromIowa) – and requires all of us to be in the stands 30 minutes before kickoff.

I don’t know if they’ll be able to pull this off, as I believe this will be like herding kittens.  But if it works, this will be the shiz-nit:

———-

Northwestern Wildcats  @  Iowa Hawkeyes

6:00 PM / BTN / Line: Hawks by 6.5

What Up?

I hate Northwestern.  The color purple sucks.  And I can’t stand Pat Fitzgerald.  I wasn’t going to be able to get any further in this post without saying that.  Northwestern is our nemesis; I want to win this game as bad as any I can remember any in the past few years.  Especially when you consider it’s a night game with all the bells and whistles that I spoke about before.

Northwestern comes in as a wounded animal, as they’re already 0-2 in the B1G after giving up two substantial 1^st half leads to both Illinois and Meeechigan.  And you know what they say about being careful of wounded animals…not that the Hawks need more reasons to take these a-holes anymore seriously.

—–

The Players

Northwestern’s QB is of course #7 Dan Persa, who missed the first 4 games of the year but has conveniently healed up with enough time to get his feet under him to play his best game of the year on Saturday.  (Hurumph.)  Anyways…Persa came right back againstIllinois and immediately made a huge difference to Northwestern’s offense.  I still think he’s working through his Achilles injury, as I don’t see him wanting to run as much as he has in the past.  However, there’s no doubt that he still has a LOT of escapability…which doesn’t bode well for our DLs ability to contain a QB.

When Persa gets loose, his favorite targets are WR, #11 Jeremy Ebert, and TE #9 Drake Dunsmore…who I believe have both been playing at Northwestern since George Bush was president.  George H Bush.  Ebert is slippery with a good set of hands, and Drake Dunsmore always goes unnoticed by defenses, which is crazy since his name sounds like a reoccurring villain on “Day of Our Lives”.

TheNorthwestern OLis experienced and solid.  This is a good offense.

The Northwestern defense, however, has had issues from top-to-bottom, especially when it comes to getting teams off the field on 3^rd down.

—–

The Match-Up(s)

I’m seeing the same things that everybody else is seeing: Strength (Northwestern’s O/Iowa’s O) against Weakness (Iowa’s D/Northwestern’s D).  However, I’m not so sure that Iowa’s O is a huge strength (not consistent), nor is their D a huge weakness (I still like the back 7).

What I AM sure of is that Meeechigan had a good defense going into last Saturday night, but Persa and Northwestern shredded their D all night long; it was sort of refreshing to see the exact same WR bubble screens and Persa scramble-and-complete passes we’ve seen the past severl years.  The only reason that Meeechigan was able to “stop” Northwestern was because the Wildcats turned the ball over 3x in the second half.  That game was going to be a shoot-out.

What Will Happen

I have as little of a feel for this game as I’ve had for anIowagame in recent memory.  I think it will either be an inexplicable low-scoring game whereIowa’s speedy LBs match-up well with Northwestern’s Offense…or a high-scoring shoot-out with two under-manned Defenses.

The problem?…I don’t think Iowa has the running-game to be consistent enough on Offense to score enough points…and we won’t be able to stop Persa a

Northwestern Wildcats 38  -  Iowa Hawkeyes 24

———-

Week 4 “Precarious Predictions”

NCAA ATS                38-44

Last Week ATS         5-7

Iowa ATS                    3-2

———-

BIG TEN

Indiana @ #4 Wisconsin

11:00 AM / ESPN2 / Line: ‘sconny by 40

Gotta be one of the biggest point spreads for a Big Ten Conference game of all-time.  I am counting onWisconsinbeing a little bit rusty, but I’m not confident at all.

Indiana + the points.

-

Purdue @ Penn State

11:00 AM / BTN / Line: Nits by 12

Purdue is not going to see the “2:30 kickoff, we want to kill these guys”PennStatethat we saw last week.  I feel good about this game.

Purdue + the points

-

Ohio State @ #16 Illinois

2:30 PM / ABC-ESPN / Line: Illini by 4

I’m not convinced thatOhioStatehas enough offense to stay withIllinois(did I just type that?), and there’s no doubt thatIllinoishas what killsOhioState: a pass rush.

Illini covers.

-

Big Ten Game of the Week

#11 Meeechigan @ #23 Michigan State

11:00 AM / ESPN / Line: Sparty by 3

I still can’t figure out how good Sparty is…they really, really perplex me.  I have no doubt thatMichiganState can win this game, especially when you realize how often Denard Robinson likes to throw the ball to the other defense (and that’s a pretty good Sparty defense).

But doesn’t Meeechigan have to get the 3-year Sparty monkey off their back?  I think this will be low-scoring, so I honestly like the 3 pints.

Meeechigan + the points.

———-

Around the country – Wow…not much here.

-

NATIONAL GAME OF THE WEEK

#18 Arizona State @ #9 Oregon

9:15 PM / ESPN / Line: A&M by 14 ½

Night game in the “Zoo”…so 14 ½ doesn’t seem like enough.  ButOregonhas shown some signs of being “off” these past few weeks, and I think missing LaMichael James is bigger than what people are expecting.

ASU + the points.

———-

ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GO HAWKS!

- Jeffrey the Greek!

Death By Cheese

Did I enjoy the ass-WHOOPIN’ that was administered to Nebraska on Saturday night?  Hell yes.  It didn’t even bother me a bit that it was by our rival to the northeast…I just wanted Nebrask-ASS fans to be served a B1G piece of humble pie.  And boy did they!  (Giggle, giggle, giggle…)

But of course this also means that the gap between the top team and the rest of the pack is as big as I’ve ever seen it, and that’s counting the past 7 years of Ohio State ruling the Big Ten.  Obviously Wisconsin has the OL and stable of RBs that they’ve had for the past several years.  This is nothing new, as this has been the description of all Wisconsin teams in the past 5-7 years.  But those teams still had losses to Ohio State, Iowa and a few other teams with athletic DLs that could make them one-dimensional.

The difference with this year’s teams is obvious, and it is Mr. Russell Wilson, who’s a real Heisman Trophy candidate.  I have to eat my words from earlier this year, as I now believe he is absolutely amazing.  It’s not just his running ability, it’s his ability to get out of trouble, re-set, and throw an accurate ball.  And after hearing him get interviewed, I think he could friggin’ run for President about 30 years from now.

The only issue with Wisconsin is the depth on their defense, and the fact that they have yet to play a true road game.  Amazingly, the latter won’t happen until October 22^nd when they finally go to East Lansing.

A B1G Ol’ Mess

Another reason behind Wisconsin’s dominance is because the B1G has as much parity and sub-par QB play throughout the league that I’ve ever seen in the past decade.  Every team (besides Wisconsin) not only has a wart…it’s a green wart that’s right in the middle of their forehead:

Michigan        Shaky passing game

Illinois             Just…shaky (turnovers, penalties, etc)

Michigan St    Running game              

Nebraska        Martinez looks like he’s throwing a watermelon

Iowa                DL, consistent running game

Northwestern Front 7, Dan Persa’s health

Penn State      2 QBs = 0 QBs

Purdue            Most everything

Indiana            Nearly everything

Minnesota      Everything

I am going to save ranking the B1G until after this weekend, as I don’t believe last weekend was enough of a litmus test.  (But if I did it for right now…it would prooobably look something like it does above.)

———-

ISU-bags

And that’s it.  I’m done with ever, ever, EVER being interested in watching the CyCLOWNS again in a big game – other than of course their annual ‘September Super Bowl’ against Iowa.  And if there are any ISU fans that actually read this blog, let me just say that I was cheering for Iowa State against Texas.  I’ll also say that if I were an Iowa State Football fan (…OK…just threw up in my mouth a little bit…) I would be sick of Iowa fans bitching about Iowa State getting up for Iowa and Iowa only.  I would.

But ya know what?…screw it.  You suck and you’re annoying.  The Big 12 North could have been navigated for the better part of a decade, and you did nothing.  WIN A BIG CONFERENCE GAME ONE TIME IN YOUR FOOTBALL LIFE (and no…Texaslast year doesn’t count).  Hell…how about just making it a game?!?  I was watching a replay of the 2009 Iowa vs. Ohio State game on Tuesday night, and I thought: When was the last time Iowa State played a ranked opponent and simply had a really close, hard-fought, well-contested loss?

Get up for one game a year, and this is what you get.  It’s ridiculous, and if I were an ISU fan I’d be sick of this script.

Puke.  I PUKE on you Iowa State.

———-

Pretty Good Ferentz Interview

http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/football/34730-just-askin-kirk.html

———-

Iowa Hawkeyes  @  Penn State Nittany Lions

2:30 PM / ABC-ESPN / Line: Nits by 4

What Up?

We are 4 point dogs, and even Penn State fans were shocked they were favored by that much (very sad…I peaked on a message board).  And why are we dogs?!?  Because our lone loss is to the bastard team that I just mentioned above, that’s why.  Nobody – and I mean nobody – realizes that Iowa State plays approximately 1,805x better the 2^nd week in September than they do any other weekend of the year.

(Ok…I’m off that…)

Penn State has limped to a 4-1 record by the slimmest of margins.  Quite frankly, they look like a team that has an utter lack of leadership with both their offense and coaching.  So yes…I’m talking about 84-year-old JoePa – a guy we all love and respect.  EIGHTY…FOUR.  The best way I can describe that JoePa is too old to coach college football is by my girlfriend’s reaction whenever she sees him on TV: she has the same “Ooooeeeewwwwuhhh…cuuuuute” reaction that she makes when she sees a new puppy on Facebook.  That is NOT a good sign for a leader of 18-23 year-old dudes.

And then there’s this:

http://blog.pennlive.com/bobflounders/2011/10/joe_paterno_plays_many_roles_a.html

As for Iowa, here is the big question: Is THIS the “Springboard Game”…or is it next week against Northwestern?  I would contend that next week is the more important game (you always want to win games in Kinnick), but maybe this is a “Springboard Game for the Springboard Game”??

I think I just confused myself.

Anyhoo…a win here would be a huge confidence booster for the Hawks, especially for JVB, which by the way would be his first road win as starting QB.  A loss is not necessarily a season-ender, but it would obviously make things that much tougher.

And just in case there isn’t enough fuel to the fire, a Penn State player may just have provided it (and he at least provided me with the title to this blog):

http://nittanyextra.com/?p=861

—–

The Players

Penn State’s issues at QB have been well-documented, as they’ve puzzled many Nittany Lions fans with a 2-QB rotation between Matt McGloin and Rob Bolden.  Neither has played great, but I don’t think there’s much question at this point that McGloin is the better option; I fully expect that he’ll be the full-time starter all day Saturday, and that is a good thing for Penn State.  Silas Redd is a good RB.

Penn State has lost their best defensive player in LB Michael Mauti, but their defense remains solid as usual, especially along the DL with DTs Devon Still and Jordan Hill.  They will make running the ball difficult for everybody this year, not just this Saturday with Iowa.

The Match-Up(s)

I personally believe the Iowa DL is the Iowa DL, it will not be a strength, but I also don’t believe it will be a back-breaking weakness like some people make it out to be.  So with that said, there’s no doubt in my mind that the biggest jump in production needs to come from…the offensive line.  I believe they have yet to play up to their potential, but I also feel that they’re only a butt-hair away from doing so.  I also believe we were seeing a bit healthier, quicker, and more confident Marcus Coker last week…now he just needs some room to run.

If the Hawks can run the ball?…fuhgetabawdit.

What Will Happen

I am nervous that we’re due for a turnover game on offense.  But seeing as how you can never guess that, I’ll move forward.

This is going to be a tight game, as the crowd noise and Penn State’s defense will limit JVBs ability to run the no-huddle and get into a groove throughout the entire first half.  As stated before, I believe McGloin will remain in the entire time, and Penn State’s offense will look better because of it.

I also have the exact same feeling for this game as I did before the Nebraska-Wisconsin game: it seems rather obvious to me who the better, more complete team is.  Last Saturday I thought it was Wisconsin; this time around I think it’s Iowa.  Although I don’t believe that we’ll blow out Penn State like Wisconsin did against Nebraska (giggle) I do believe we have the better team.

I don’t feel particularly great about this game, but I “ain’t messin’ with a streak”, as I honestly believe a winning-streak like what we have over Penn State starts to creep into the players, coaches, and even the fans’ heads.

Two TDs throws by JVB (McNutt and Fiedorowicz), and Meyer will hit 2/3 FGs after a few Iowa drives die inside the 10 yards line (because we won’t be able to run the ball that well).

Iowa Hawkeyes 20  -  Penn State Nittany Lions 16

———-

Week 5 “Precarious Predictions”

NCAA ATS                33-38

Last Week ATS         3-9…(ouch)

Iowa ATS                    3-1

———-

BIG TEN – This is where things start to heat up in the B1G…

Minnesota @ Purdue

11:00 AM / ESPN / Line: Purdue by 10

This crap-fest between Minnesota (1-4) and Purdue (2-2) is on ESPN.  To give you an idea how much better the B1G’s TV deal is compared to the Big 12’s (and why so many Big 12 teams including Missouri want to bolt)…Kansas @ #6 OK State, Iowa State @ #25 Baylor are not on TV at all…while Mizzou @ #20 Kansas State is on only in a very limited region.  Wow.

Anyway…not enough points for Minnesota on the road.

Purdue Covers.

-

#19 Illinois @ Indiana

1:30 PM / BTN / Line: Illinois by 14

Not a misprint on the time of this game, as I believe that BTN is trying to stagger its start times to get a few more people watching.

FINALLY Illinois is hitting the road, having not left Champaign once during its first 5 games.  I think there’s at least a chance thatIndianais playing a little bit better.  I also think that Illinois is really good at playing down to their competition’s level.

Indiana + the points.

-

#11 Meeechigan @ Northwestern

6:00 PM / BTN / Line: Michigan by 8

Another weird start time of 6:00 pm.

Yet another team – Meeechigan – that is finally leaving the comforts of home, as this is their first game away from ‘The Big House’ this year.  Everything that I’m reading says that Dan Persa is going to play in this game, and it’s amazing how much different Northwestern is when Dan Persa is behind center.  He…is…GOOD.  (SEE: the last three games of 2010 for Northwestern – all losses – after he completed his last pass of the season…againstIowa…to beat us.  HURUMPH!)

I feel the best about picking this game than I do any other game in the B1G…but all bets are immediately off if Persa isn’t playing.

Northwestern + the points

-

Big Ten Game of the Week

Ohio State @ #14 Nebraska

7:00 PM / ABC / Line: Nebraska by 11

If you question this as the B1G GOTW, I wouldn’t blame you, as Meeechigan/Northwestern is probably a better match-up and may be an infinitely better game to watch.  But let’s be honest, this is the game that many people will turn in to, if only to find out which team is the really shitty one.

I believe that Nebraska will win this game, mostly because they’re at home and because I just don’t see how Ohio State will be able to manufacture enough points.  I mean…they looked HORRIBLE last week.  But I also have this gut feeling that Ohio State is going to make this a game, because they HAVE TO.  Folks…Ohio State may not even make a BOWL.  Don’t they at least go down fighting?!?

 Bucks + the points.

———-

Around the country…eh…not much.

Thursday Night

Cal @ #9 Oregon

8:00 PM / ESPN / Line: Oregon by 23.5

I think Cal is a bit better than what Vegas is showing here.  I see this game going deep into the 3^rd quarter.  Maybe not appointment TV, but check into it about 10pm to see if you can catch a good 2^nd half before you drift off to sleep .

Cal + the points.

-

Friday Night

#5 Boise State @ Fresno State

8:00 PM / ESPN / Line: Boise by 21

I will watch for two reasons: 1) To cheer against Boise.  2) Because it’s not AT Boise on the pukey blue turf.

Fresno State + the points.

-

Saturday

#17 Florida @ #1 LSU

2:30 PM / CBS / Line: LSU by 14 ½

This could have been a great game, but Florida not only got clocked by ‘Bama last weekend, they even got their starting QB (John Brantley) knocked out for a few weeks – so nobody thinks that Florida will make a game of it.  I get it.

Something to keep in mind is that LSU seems to play down to their competition.  And even bigger, aren’t we about due for a whacky Les Miles “they shouldn’t have won that game but they did”…game?  Yet another thing to consider: I believe Jordan Jefferson coming back and flapping his big, dumb gums is going to cause a distraction for this team.

Florida + the points.

-

ISU @ #25 Baylor

7:00 PM / NO TV / Line: Baylor by 15

So whaddya got in store for us this Saturday night, Iowa State?  The thing is…Iowa State was moving the ball at WILL againstTexasin the first half before they handed them the ball.  Can they do that again against a shaky Baylor defense WITHOUT the turnovers?  If they do, they not only cover but win the game.

But there’s no answer to RG3 forIowaState.

Baylor covers.

-

#15 Auburn @ #10 Arkansas

7:00 PM / ESPN / Line: Hogs by 9 ½

This line could been 4-14 and I wouldn’t have blinked an eye.

I’m still not a huge believer in Auburn, and I think their worst days are ahead of them.  This is a youngAuburnteam going into a hostile, night-game environment.

Arkansas covers.

-

NATIONAL GAME OF THE WEEK

#3 Oklahoma vs. #11 Texas

11:00 AM / ABC / Line: Sooners by 10

I don’t think there’s any question that this Red River Rivalry has lost a little bit of Zest – as most people don’t believe thatTexas can make this a great game.

I believe it as well, as I don’t see how a QB rotation of a Frosh (Ash) and Soph (McCoy) can really understand how big this game is until they’re in the middle of it.

Oklahoma covers.

———-

ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GO HAWKS!

- Jeffrey the Greek!

Hello football fans!!!

-

Bizarro World

This term is probably better known as a Seinfeld reference, but it also has funny meaning to me and a few family members:

So it was about…oh I don’t know…ten frickin’ years ago (puke) and I was partying with my bro Daron, cousin Jodee, and cousin Barney in Northwest Iowa where Jodee lived at the time.  This was, of course, all before any of us were serious with anybody, any kids were involved, and when we were younger.  I don’t know what town we were partying in, let alone what establishment we were at.  I can’t even tell you why we were there, except that Jode lived near by, there was some kind of town celebration going on, and they had a tent up filled w/ kegs.  The entrance between the bar and tent was done cheap-like, with cheap plastic sheeting.  (I’m guessing 8 mil thickness.)

The scene in the bar was a normal NW Iowa bar-scene.  But for whatever reason, the scene inside the tent was weird as all hell: strange music, crazy people, low lighting…all of it made it feel like you walked into some kind of psychedelic time machine.

So of course my cousin Barney loved this scene; he called it “Bizarro World” all night long.  As in: “Holy cow Jeffrey!?!…have you been in ‘Bizarro World’ yet?!?”  Or: “I just talked to this crazy chick in ‘Bizarro World’!” (This sounds much funnier when you know Barney and impersonate him.)  It became a running joke that night, and has remained that way for years after.

Welp, Hawkeye fans, meet the ‘Bizarro World Hawkeyes’:

* Two-minute offense…two minutes into the game.

* Throwing to covered WRs (because they’ll make the play anyway).

* Throwing to set-up the run (instead of the other way around).

* Empty sets.

* Struggles along the DL.

* Blown coverages in the secondary.

* Throwing with less than a minute in the 1^st half with a 28-3 lead?!?

As Kirk Ferentz has stated in the past, this all begins and ends with James Vandenberg at QB (although I would contend that necessity is the mother of all invention).  “He’s shown a knack for running the 2-minute offense” was the simple statement from Ferentz.  I can’t help but think that 10 years from now I’ll be watching some Iowa game on ESPN Classics, and it will be a game where JVB is sinply spinnin’ the ball.  That will also be enough time for me to have reflected on his nice 8-year NFL career, and just say to myself: “Well duh.”

That’s obviously putting the cart WAY in front of the horse, but you get the idea.

Daddy, Don’t Take the T-Bird Away

But this is fun, isn’t it?  We’re all navigating through a completely uncharted sea, which thus far has only been stock-full of chesty mermaids with a twinkle in their eye.

No Hawk fan knows what the hell to think.  I don’t either, so I’m just trying to sit back and enjoy it while it lasts.

I think there are a few obvious things at play here.  First off, Ferentz’s coaching staff has remained in tact for a really, really long time.  Like…Gandalf travelling Middle Earth long.  Additionally, Hawk fans relentlessly follow their team, and many of us know the play before it even gets to the huddle.  So add that all up and you have a recipe for extreme familiarity.

Although I’ve never been with a girl that long to experience it (shut up…I’m working on it) I think its sort of like when you know the words that will come out of your spouse’s mouth before they’re even said.  And because of that, you’re annoyed.  It doesn’t mean you don’t love ‘em…it’s just how it is.  That’s what Hawk fans have had with this coaching staff since about ’07…when they were already on the job for the better part of a decade.  This is why many older coaches will tell a younger coach to not stay in one spot for too long.  I firmly believe that many Hawk fans take it for granted just how unique it is that Iowa has had only two coaches since 1979.

However, in every sea there are angry waters, so…

SLOW DOWN

…of course all of us Hawk fans need to slow our roll and keep things in perspective.  We need to do this for two very simple reasons:

1) We’ve seen this offense at work for 5 ½ quarters against Pitt and Louisiana-Monroe; that’s not exactly murderer’s row.

2) Iowa has been at home for both of those games, where JVB controls the “FX volume” to where he wants it.  What I’m saying here is that it’s going to be quite a bit tougher to audible at the line of scrimmage in Happy Valley than it is in Kinnick.

Either way, for now I’m not turning down the mermaid…even if I see the Lock Ness Monster up ahead.

———–

Conference Crap

I haven’t written anything about all the conference shake-ups and our apparent course towards ‘Super Conferences’ for a few reasons.

* Its depressing (big huge changes scare me).

* Its kinda boring.

* It changes every 24 hours.

I’m not even going to get into it a whole bunch here except to say that Texas pisses me off, and I blame them for about 90% of what we’re seeing and hearing the past 6 months.  I firmly believe that the Big Ten and S.E.C. were just fine where they were at earlier this summer.  But then Texas kept sticking the ‘Longhorn Network’ into the faces of  Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and the rest of the Big 12.  It’s BS, and I always sit and wonder that ifTexas really screws itself and winds up going Independent…who are they going to play?

Obviously revenue from TV is driving all of this, and I understand that will always be a part of the deal.  However, these are not millionaires playing college football, and neither are their parents.  Simply put, they cannot go to many of their sons’ games if they have to travel from one side of the country to the other.  It’s just not…right.

I hope this sh_t doesn’t get too far, and that cooler heads prevail very soon.

———-

Dr. Annoying

Off the grid here for a bit, but that hip-hop Dr. Pepper commercial with ‘Pit Bull’ – that’s the name of the rapper on the commercial/video (maybe call it a ‘commideo’?) – and its driving me nuts.  It’s the one where he says: “Let’s have a real good time…have real good tiiiiiiiiiime!”  Gross.  Doesn’t matter if you’re watching a game on ABC, ESPN, or BTN…it follows you like a crazy ex-girlfriend.

———-

Week 5 “Precarious Predictions”

NCAA ATS                30-27

Last Week ATS         7-5

Iowa ATS                    3-1

———-

B1G

I think it’s safe to say that was quite a shoddy September for the B1G, but now it’s October and conference play has finally begun.  Weird that Iowa sits out the first week with a BYE.  I do NOT agree that this is a well-timed BYE week for Iowa…we have momentum and are reasonably healthy.  I want to play Penn State this week – not next week.  No since crying over spilled milk, I guess…

Penn State @ Indiana

11:00 AM / ESPNU / Line: Nits by 16 ½

I first saw this line and thought “Whoa that’s a huge line for a road team to cover!…especially with a questionable offense.” (and it started even higher). So Penn State has a shoddy offense, and they just lost – arguably - their two best players on D.  But then you realize that Indiana was down 24-0 last week…against NORTH TEXAS.

I hate this game either way, but it’s a conference game so I gotta pick it.  Feel like a 31-13 game to me.

Penn State covers.

-

Minnesota @ #19 Meeechigan

11:00 AM / BTN / Line: Meeechigan by 20

Ugh…I honestly feel bad for Gopher fans (along with the rest of Minnesota sports fans).  I certainly feel bad for Coach Kill and his family, as Kill has been in Rochesterfor the past week trying to get his seizures under control.  Thoughts and prayers to Coach Kill.

There is a part of me that believes, however, that this is a decent match-up for the Gophers – their weakness is in their secondary and Denard Robinson can’t throw.

Minnesota + the points.

-

Northwestern @ #24 Illinois

11:00 AM / ESPN2 / Line:  Illinois by 8

Sneaky interesting game, as I want to see what Northwestern looks like with Persa back, and Illinois continues to intrigue me.

Can Persa make that big of a difference his first game back?  Yes…but I’m sure he’ll wait to make a difference his THIRD game back (against Iowa….hurumph).

Illinois covers.

-

Michigan State @ Ohio State

2:30 PM / ABC-ESPN / Line: Buckeyes by 3

Without a doubt the first “welp…let’s just see how good these guys are” B1G game of the day (although not the biggest).  JoePa should take a page from rookie scoach Luke Fickell’s playbook, as Fickell made the right call naming Frosh Braxton Miller the full-time starter.  As the old saying goes: “Don’t lose with Seniors.” – and that’s exactly what Fickell has done.  Ballsy, as he might not be around next year (and he probably won’t).

Michigan State is a team that certainly has senior leadership all-around on offense.  But that OL is a mess, and their defense is still suspect to me.  I think Ohio State’s D will force some mistakes by Sparty, and Braxton Miller will have another 80 yards rushing, 140 yards passing, whileOhioState’s RBs will go for about 200 by themselves.

Simply put, that’s not enough points for Sparty in the frickin’ horseshoe.

Ohio State covers.

-

Notre Dame @ Purdue

7:00 PM / ESPN / Line: ND by 12

Notre Dame continues to be who they are: a talented team that is hamstrung by turnovers.  Going on the road typically doesn’t help correct that, and I’m sure a night game will make even Purdue fans get a little worked up.  Purdue has had a lot of injures on offense, but their defense is not that bad.

But there’s no doubt that ND is more capable of handling this stage than Purdue.  If they don’t turn the ball over, they win by at least 3 TDs.

ND covers.

-

B1G AND NATIONAL Game of the Week

#8 Nebraska @ #7 Wisconsin

7:00 PM / ABC / Line: Wisconsin by 9

Once again, I thought this line looked high at first glance, and it actually started out even higher.  This line makes me think that I’m not the only one that’s been paying attention to how weird Nebraska has looked in their first 4 games.  But that hasn’t stopped crazy-committed Nebraska fans (and I mean that in every sense of the phrase) from snatching up tickets for this game, as they all want to say one thing: “I was at Nebraska’s first B1G game.”

What Up?

Welcome to the B1G, Nebraska!…as they travel to one of the craziest home night crowds not located in Baton Rouge, LA. Camp Randall will be worked into a frenzy on Saturday night to take on what has been an ‘underwhelming’ Nebraska football team.

Wisconsin comes into this game firing on all cylinders, having beaten their first four opponents 194-34.  Yes…their competition has a combined record of 5-10 (with 4 wins coming against D-1AA teams) and that raises questions with even the most committed Badger fan.  But ya know what?…Bucky has done what Bucky needed to do.

The Players

While watching the game – don’t adjust your television set – that’s’ just how shitty QB Taylor Martinez throws the ball.  I played with 3 QBs in High School – and I swear they all threw a better ball than Martinez; it looks like a 7’ center from the Eastern Block pushing a free-throw towards the basket.

Wisconsin has QB Russell Wilson, who has been amazing and has only been out-played nationally by Robert Griffin III.  (RG3, btw, has thrown more TDs than incompletions.  Seriously…read that last sentence again.)  And of course ‘sconny is loaded at RB and OL like every year since about 1994, I especially like back-up RB James White – who is an absolute gamer.  He will be trying to scoot by DT Jared Crick, who is back this week after being out with an injury last week.

The Match-Up(s)

 As usual, it will come down to what the opposing DL can do against Wisconsin’s technique-sound OL.  This was supposed to be a HUGE match-up at the beginning of the year, but both units have been a bit of a let-down this year (more so with Nebraska’s DL).  If Nebraska wants to see positive results, they better look leaps-and-bounds better along the front 7 than they have the past 4 weeks.

On the other side, we have an under-manned Nebraska OL going against an un-proven Wisconsin DL.  This is where the game will be decided – can the Wisconsin DL get pressure on Martinez throwing the ball and make him look like…well…like Taylor Martinez.

The biggest advantage for Nebraska, by the way, is on Special Teams.  Nebraska has a great kicker, great return game, and a good punter.  This is where Nebraska HAS TO make a difference.

What Will Happen

I’ve watched both of these teams play every game besides Wisconsin last week.  Only when Wisconsin is disinterested have they looked sub-par.  On the other hand, Nebraska looks like a team that’s loaded with Freshmen – one play good, one play horrible.

I won’t be shocked if Nebraska pulls this off, as I believe the Badgers will finally have to play a whole game to pull this out…and that shouldn’t be taken lightly.  But I simply believe in what I’ve seen, and Wisconsin will have to play a bad game – a complete bad game – in order to lose.  This is a night game in Camp Randall, and I just don’t think that Russell Wilson will allow that to happen.

Wisconsin 34 – Nebraska 28

Nebraska + the points.

———-

Around the country – Not a lot of good games, but the few good ones are…well…good.

Thursday Night

#16 South Florida @ Pittsburgh

7:00 PM / ESPN / Line: So. Fla by 3

Not a bad Thursday night game.

I always guess the line before I look it up – and I’m usually pretty close as long as its not one of those 35 point spread type of games.  Anyways, I guessed this one at  So.Florida by 9 ½ because I thought it’d bee too high, but of course the guidos hit it.

Still, Pitt is sneaky good – at home – on Thursday night and they’re getting points.

Pitt + the points.

-

#14 Texas A&M vs. #18 Arkansas

11:00am / ESPN / Line: A&M by 3

Is this the “Lick Our Wounds” Bowl?

A&M covers.

-

#15 Baylor @ Kansas State

2:30 PM / ESPN-ABC / Line: Baylor by 3

Read above what I wrote about So.Florida.

I know Kansas State has the statistical best defense in the country.  I also think RG3 is visiting us from a space-ship, and I’m not betting against him.

Baylor covers.

-

#13 Clemson @ #11 Virginia Tech

5:00 PM / ESPN2 / Line: Va Tech by 6 ½

I’m not sure if I’ll be able to give this game as much attention as it deserves, but it’s a pretty good game.

Clemson just might be my favorite college team not wearing Black & Gold – love their uni’s and I love when they come outta the crowd.  I will be cheering for Clemson because I believe they’re a great story, but its asking too much of Clemson to make it happen 3 weeks in a row.

Va Tech covers.

-

#17 Texas @ Iowa State

6:00 PM / FX / Line: Texas by 9 ½

I guessed 9 for this line – so I think this is right where it’s at.

I’m not gonna lie…I’m looking forward to this game more than I’m looking forward to the Florida-Alabama game, and just under the Wisconsin-Nebraska game.  I will officially consider Iowa State “validated” for their 2^nd week in September win if they win this game (and make a bowl).  Biggest conference game in the Rhoads era…and it’s not even close.  Also, a win by Iowa State will probably knock Texas out of the Top 25, and can do nothing but helpIowa.

Can Jack Trice be as loud for this game as it was 3 weeks ago?  Yes…especially when you factor in the night game.  This is key because it’s the first road game start for whoever plays QB for Texas, probably Case McCoy.  This is a YOUNG Longhorns team, and Texas is getting points on name alone.

However, Iowa State NEEDS TO PLAY A CLEAN GAME, as there’s been too many penalties and Jantz turnovers.  But they’ve gotten by with unbelievable plays by…Steel Jantz of course, who makes all ISU fans feel manic-depressive.  This can’t be the recipe all year long for ISU if they want to make a bowl.

Nobody is giving Iowa Stat eany chance, and I think that’s mistake with them coming off of a BYE week, and with Texas still not being a team with a real identity.  However, Texas will expect to win this game, and ISU hopes it will.  Good game, though.

Texas 28 – Iowa State24

Iowa State + the points.

-

(Other ) NATIONAL GAME OF THE WEEK

#3 Alabama @ #12 Florida

7:00 PM / CBS / Line: ‘bama by 3 ½

Holy crap – this S.E.C. tilt snuck up on everybody, with ‘bama playing a big game last week, and Florida suddenly able to put several things together.

This the best defense in the country (‘bama) going into ‘The Swamp’ to play another really good defense.  This will be the first time we get to see if AJ McCarron (‘bama QB) is really ready to lead his team to an S.E.C. Championship.

Floridahas some stuff working, and they want to make a statement.  I like that ½ point I’m getting here.

Florida + the points.

———-

HAVE A GREAT WEEK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GO HAWKS!

- Jeffrey the Greek!

Hello football fans!!!

{ OK this is a longer post, as the first part was supposed to be part of Monday’s post, and then the rest as this Thursday night’s post as well.  But I never got it out on Monday night, as I had a combo of two things hit me.

First was a nasty 2+ day hangover after what was possibly the wildest 3-day-Iowa City bachelor party that I’ve ever been a part of.  DEFINITELY the wildest one I ever hosted, as I am the Best Man in my buddy Patrick’s destination wedding in January.  I really wish that I could tell you some stories like I used to in the old Jeffrey the Greek! days…but I’m pretty sure the frosty reception I got upon my arrival on Sunday could be quickly duplicated.

Then I had a crazy-busy week of work, which of COURSE always follows a three-day bender; the universe always works itself out. }

———-

A Comeback For the Ages

WOWZER.  How ‘bout that!?!?!  21-point come-from-behind wins don’t happen very often.  And in fact, it’s the first time it’s happened in the history of Iowa football.  Awesome!

As the week wore on, it took me a while to come down from that amazing, gutty, heart-wrenching victory.  And almost as important…THAT was the post-game tailgate scene that we’ve all been waiting for!  Hell yea Hawk fans!!!

And no…I did NOT leave the game early, although a roll of the eyes between my brother and I in the middle of the 3rd quarter said that we were both thinking about it.  NEVER leave a game early unless you are 100%, bet-my-house positive that it’s over.  This is college football, y’all.  It makes 13-year-old girls seem calm and under control.

———-

Check Yes or No

Speaking of 13-year-old girls, perhaps you get my drift with the title of this post, but I’ll explain it just in case:  Middle School Love is very turbulent, and every feeling is new and intense – whether good or bad.  One day you’re in love, the next day your gal is with Zach Kaiser.  Looking back…these ups and downs are to be expected when the people involved are so new to relationships and don’t know what to expect.

I’m starting to think that’s exactly what we may have with the 2011 Hawks.

Adding to the roller coaster is the fact that we’ve only played 3 games…but it feels like we’ve played about twice that many.  Week 1 the Hawks played a game before the rain delay…and one after.  Then  Week 2 they played a game in regulation…and a game in OT.  Then this past weekend we saw a game for the first 2 ½ quarters…then a much, much different one for the last quarter and a half.

And each one of these “games” has been crazier than the previous week.  To top the historical 21-point comeback victory last weekend, Marvin McNutt may have to uncover Jimmy Hoffa’s body in the north end-zone after a diving, game-winning TD catch.

———-

Fixable Issues

1) Penalties

Against Pitt, the Hawks had 89 yards in Penalties.  EIGHTY-NINE!  And that’s not really counting how many yards were taken away after Jordan Bernstine cranked off a 50 yard kickoff return…only to be taken back with a holding call.  Those things are easy to point to.

What’s harder to point to with penalties is how it takes an offense out of rhythm.  Iowa was in 3^rd and 7+ an astonishing eight times in the FIRST HALF last week against Pitt.  Outside of Oklahoma State…there are very few team that can consistently overcome that

And oh by the way…I have complete faith that the coaches will get that figured out.

2) Coker

I really, really don’t like to single out individual players not named Herb Grigsby.  And from all reports I’ve read about the young man, Marcus Coker is a great kid and leader.  But after re-watching the entire Pitt game, I feel like its plain as day that something’s wrong with Coker.  The easy assumption behind this is to say that he fumbled early in the year, and it’s stuck in his head.  And if I had to bet on something, that’s what I’d go with too.

Perhaps he’s hurt?  Perhaps he has something going on in his life?

And then my brother pointed something out after the tailgate: Perhaps he’s just not the right fit for this year’s offense?  I really, really hope that’s not the case, but it’s a very intriguing thought.

What I DO know is when I was watching Pitt’s RB, I saw a player that was decisive and made cuts on a dime.  Simply put, he made plays.  Granted, I think he’s a very talented player that has a great chance to play on Sundays.  No matter what, at some point as a RB you have to make people miss and make a play on your own.  An OL can only do so much.  The Hawks are missing that in a major way.

Do we have some depth behind him to do that?  I don’t know.  What I do know is that #32 Damon Bullock looked good on his lone carry last week, and I remain intrigued by true-frosh Jordan Canzeri.  We will see.

———-

Wear Green

I’m sure most of you know the story, but former-Hawkeye Brett Greenwood was found unresponsive after a workout 2 weeks ago, and I believe he has been in a coma since then.  His status is unclear, and an athlete this young should be in our prayers.  I had the luck of sitting and talking with a current Hawkeye on Saturday night, who was a great guy himself.  He told me that he never saw Kirk Ferentz as emotional after the win on Saturday, and one would think this had something to do with it.

So several students atIowaare going to honor Brett Greenwood by wearing Green to the game on Saturday – but all of us are invited.  So feel free to honor a great former Hawkeye and wear green to Kinnick on Sunday.

And most importantly, thoughts and Prayers to Brett Greenwood and his family.

———-

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks  @  Iowa Hawkeyes

11:00 AM / BTN / Line: Hawks by 17

What Up?

Holy crap…this is a battle-tested UL-Monroe’s team.  This is their 4^th game, and the Iowa Hawkeyes are probably the 3^rd toughest opponent behind Florida State and TCU.  They were shut down and out against FSU, destroyed a bad Grambling State, and then hung in there last week on the road against TCU.  So they’re either tough and calloused, or beat-down and ready to go back home.

As for the Hawks, I honestly don’t believe this team will over-look anybody, so I’m not worried about that at all.  What does worry me is that they’re coming off of two straight amazingly emotional games; one of them horrible, one of them great.  If I were a gambler (cough, cough) I would take a good, hard luck at UL-M simply because of that fact.

As a Hawkeye fan following the 2011 team, I will continually be interested to see what kind of offensive play-calling we come out with every week…at least for the first two series or so.  This is as good of a time as any to speak to the ‘Tavern Hawks’: Don’t think that Ferentz and O’Keefe are going to go all ‘Bombs Away!’ because of the last quarter and a half of the Pitt game.

Are the Hawks more of a throwing team than anytime in the Ferentz era, save 2004?  Yessir.  But we obviously still need the running game.  It’s just that we’re backwards this year, as we’ll be using the pass to set-up the run, instead of vice-versa.  (Late October and November weather is coming…)  But I DO BELIEVE that we’ll see some more 2-minute offense, and I’m all for it.

—–

The Players

The Warhawks bring in a Sophomore under center, named QB Kolton Browning.  Predictably, he’s a mobile QB that we’ll need to wrap up.  I don’t think there’s any question that he’s the weakest QB we’ve face all year.  They also have a sophomore at RB, a strong runner named Centar-ius Donald.  No word yet if he is half-horse, half-human…but he’s probably hung like one.

The real strength for this team is on defense, especially with Senior CB Darius Prelow.

The Match-Up(s)

The biggest match-up will be betweenIowa’s OL and the Warhawks athletic-enough DL and how much heat they bring with their scheme.  So what will the Warhawks do?  Very quickly…very easily…it could become tough for defensive coordinators to game-plan against James Vandenberg, as I believe the chains have been securely pulled off the Junior.  There’s also the aforementioned CB Prelow, who will try to make himself a draft position by hanging all over WR Marvin McNutt.

On the other side, there’s no doubt thatIowahas had some breakdowns in the secondary, and some questions on the DL.  But last week I actually saw a much-improved defense…at least with the tackling.  The switch of Micah Hyde back to CB and Jordan Bernstine to safety is big.

UL-Monroe has struggled on offense, to say the least.  IfIowa’s defense plays well, this will give them a chance to build some momentum before the bye week.

What Will Happen

I am feeling one of two games:

1st) As discussed before, we see the Hawks come out a little bit flat.  And ya know what…that’s ok.  Why?  Because even though this will sound crazy, I would rather see us trade blows then put it away in the 2^nd half, as compared to my other feel:

2nd) The Hawks getting up by about 17 points, getting stale, and letting UL-Monroe back in the game and possibly sneak out with a victory.

I am going with option #1:

Iowa Hawkeyes 28  -  Louisiana Monroe 17

(But with that being said, it would be GREAT to see us go into the Bye Week with some momentum after a big, “holy cow did Vandenberg and Coker look GOOD!?!” kind of victory…)

———-

Week 4 “Precarious Predictions”

NCAA ATS                23-22

Last Week ATS         11-5

Iowa ATS                    3-0

———-

BIG TEN – Yup…bad, BAD week of Big Ten games.  Real bad.

Central Michigan @ Michigan State

11:00 AM / ESPN-U / Line: ‘sconny by 21 ½

Welp…its still too early to see if my “Paper Lion” prediction for the 2011 Spartans is true…but we’re getting a whole lot closer to it, as they looked like a hot pile of dog-shit last weekend against Notre Dame.  And now their weakest link – their OL – just got weaker when one of their Senior starters went down.

Central Michgan, on the other hand, is god-awful.  I hate this game but I will guess on an ugly 23 to 6 crap-fest.

Central Michigan + the points.

-

Eastern Michigan @ Penn State

11:00 AM / BTN

-

South Dakota @ #6 Wisconsin

2:30 PM / BTN`

-

Colorado @ Ohio State

2:30 AM / ESPN2 / Line: Buckeyes by 14

Kind of a sneaky interesting game…

Frosh Braxton Miller now has the complete reigns of the offense, and that’s a good thing.  I expect to see a MUCH different Ohio State defense here, a special teams score, and just enough offense to cover.

Ohio State covers

-

Western Michigan @ #24 Illinois

2:30 PM / BTN / Line: Illini by 13 ½

Illinois deserves this #24 ranking.  They run the ball and put pressure on the QB – that combo is never a bad thing.  I honestly think they’re the 2nd best team in the Big Ten.

But this is a TOUGH Western Michigan team, and Illinois better get their gear screwed on tight…especially after a pretty big and emotional night game against ASU.

Western Michigan + the points

-

North Dakota State @ Minnesota

7:00 PM / BTN

Goldy better get HIS gear on tight for this game as well.  And when I was getting a tour of TCF Field on Tuesday (we had a work presentation there), I told him as much:

-

Indiana @ North Texas

7:00 PM / ESPN3

-

#9 Nebraska & Wyoming

7:00 PM / VS. / Line: Cornhuskers by 21

This is going to be like a home game forNebraskathere will be so many Husker fans there.

Huskers cover

-

Big Ten Game of the Week

San Diego State @ #22 Meeechigan

11:00 AM / BTN / Line: Meeech by 11

The Brady Bowl…blah, blah, blah.

Meeechigan’s D is still not settled.  This better be the game where Brady Hoke says “screw it” and just lets Denard Robinson be Shoelace.  If not?…Meeechigan could be in some trouble.

San Diego State + the points.

———-

Around the country – A lot of sneaky-great games this weekend!

Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh

11:00 AM / ABC / Line: ND by 7

Welp…the men in the desert believe that Notre Dame is 4 points better than the Hawks, as the Hawks were 3 point favorites over this same Pitt team last week.

C’mon…admit it…you’re very intrigued with this game.  How often does a team thatIowaplayed in an all-time classic turn around and play an intriguing Irish team?  How hard will I be cheering for Pittsburgh?  Hard.  But I don’t think it will matter, as only Notre Dame can beat itself in this game…not Pitt.

Irish cover.

-

#11 Florida State @ #21 Clemson

2:30 PM / ESPN / Line: Clemson by 2

The Seminoles come in beat up – both physically and mentally.  Clemson has the “after the big game” let-down as well, but the Death Valley crowd drives them to the win.

Clemson covers.

-

#14 Arkansas @ #3 Alabama

2:30 PM / CBS / Line: ‘bama by 10.5

Is there a chance that Arkansas comes out dealin’ like it did last year?  Yes.  But I think there’s a better chance that theAlabamacrowd will make things tough forArkansas’ passing game, and Alabama’s defense will take it from there.  I’m thinking something like a 28-14 game.  Not an easy cover, but a cover nonetheless.

‘Bama covers.

-

Missouri @ #1 Oklahoma

7:00 PM / FX / Line: OK nu 20

I doubt it, but perhaps Mizzou will catch the Sooners sleeping?  The night game will help get the Sooners up.

OK covers.

-

#2 LSU @ #16 West Virginia

7:00 PM / ABC / Line: LSU by 6

Until I see somebody break through this LSU defense, I’m not betting against them.  Of course, there is always that chance that Jarrett Lee implodes.  I just don’t think this is the game.

LSU covers.

-

NATIONAL GAME OF THE WEEK

#7 Oklahoma State @ #8 Texas A&M

2:30 PM / ABC-ESPN2 / Line: A&M by 4.5

I’m not normally a huge fan of “screw the defense, and let’s just chuck it” types of game.  But I made this the Game of the Week because this game has been a great game – decided by a TD or less – pretty much every years since about 2004.

I just don’t think it’s a good idea to bet against thisOklahomaStateoffense right now, as Weeden is on another planet, and Justin Blackmon is orbiting.  And OK State’s defense is at least serviceable.

OK State + the points.

———-

ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GO HAWKS!

- Jeffrey the Greek!